China: Coal and lignite imports rise m-o-m in Sep’26 but decline y-o-y

• Imports rise 3% m-o-m in Sep, potentially driven by winter restocking
• Jan-Sep imports rise 2%, Sep imports fall 6% y-o-y amid domestic supply

China’s coal and lignite imports increased by 3% m-o-m to 43.37 mnt in September 2026, supported by seasonal restocking requirements and potential replenishment ahead of winter heating demand.

However, imports declined by 6% y-o-y, indicating comparatively weaker import demand amid improving domestic coal availability and evolving consumption trends. During January-September 2026, cumulative imports rose by around 2% y-o-y to 354 mnt, reflecting modest overall growth in import dependence despite the September decline.

China’s coal imports are likely to remain supported by winter inventory replenishment and seasonal heating demand over the coming months. However, the pace of growth will depend on domestic coal production, power-sector consumption, industrial activity and the price competitiveness of imported coal against domestic supplies.

If domestic production remains adequate and consumption growth is moderate, import demand may remain subdued despite seasonal restocking. Conversely, stronger winter power demand or supply disruptions could encourage additional seaborne purchases. Overall, imports are expected to remain sensitive to seasonal demand and domestic supply conditions, with sustained year-on-year growth dependent on the extent of winter restocking.