India: Black pepper prices remain stable as arrivals decline

• Kochi inventories remain stable despite 19% decline in arrivals
• Oct futures fall, with lower open interest indicating long unwinding

India’s black pepper market remained largely stable during the week ended 2 October 2026, despite a sharp decline in arrivals. Kochi spot prices remained unchanged at INR 723/kg, while October futures declined 0.4% w-o-w to INR 727/kg from INR 730/kg. December futures, however, increased 0.3% to INR 736/kg from INR 734/kg.

Spot market remains stable

Kochi arrivals declined 18.6% w-o-w to 570 t from 700 tonnes (t), indicating lower fresh supply entering the physical market. However, the reduction in arrivals did not result in higher spot prices, suggesting that buying interest remains subdued.

Stocks at Kochi remained unchanged at 35 t, indicating no significant movement in reported inventory levels. The stable spot market despite lower arrivals points to limited demand pressure from buyers.

The decline in arrivals could provide some downside protection to physical prices if buying interest improves. However, the absence of a corresponding increase in spot prices suggests that traders are not aggressively bidding for available supplies.

October futures signal long unwinding

October futures fell to INR 727/kg, while open interest declined to 67 t from 74, a 9.5% decrease. The simultaneous decline in prices and open interest indicates long unwinding, reflecting weaker near-term conviction among futures market participants.

December futures moved higher to INR 736/kg, while open interest remained unchanged at zero, limiting the significance of the price increase.

Outlook

Black pepper prices are expected to remain largely stable in the near term. Lower arrivals and stable stocks could lend support to the physical market, while subdued buying interest and long unwinding in October futures may cap upside potential. A sustained price recovery would likely require stronger domestic or export demand.