- Tight inventories, prolonged mill maintenance continue to restrict supply
- Improving project activity, rising real estate registrations strengthen outlook
Indian tier-1 steelmakers have raised blast furnace (BF)-route rebar list prices by up to INR 1,000/t- 3,000/t ($11-31/t) for early October deliveries, as tight inventories, ongoing maintenance shutdowns and improving project demand support a firm pricing environment. An eastern-based steelmaker increased its rebar prices by around INR 2,000/t m-o-m, while a major PSU steelmaker has raised prices by up to INR 3,000/t. Further price revisions from other major producers are expected, with several mills yet to announce their latest offers.
Notably, trade-level BF-route rebar prices have reached a four-year high of around INR 63,000-65,000/t, with similar levels last recorded in 2022. The sustained price rally has been supported by tight market availability, depleted mill and distributor inventories, rising input costs and improving project demand. The latest uptrend also comes after trade-level rebar prices increased by around INR 6,500/t in September, underscoring sustained supply tightness and a firm pricing environment.
Project rebar prices were heard workable at INR 64,000-66,000/t ($664-684/t) landed. Buying activity has improved as project customers have increased procurement, while traders are selectively replenishing inventories ahead of further primary price increases and amid tightening spot availability. Market sources indicate that inventories at major mills have fallen to around 2-5 days, while distributor stocks also remain low. Tight availability has prompted some producers to temporarily stop accepting fresh project bookings.
Key market drivers
Tightening supply: A major South India-based PSU steelmaker has remained under maintenance for more than three months, tightening regional supply.
Low inventories: Mill-level inventories have declined sharply, with mills currently holding only around 5 days of material. Distributors are also carrying limited stocks, with inventory estimated at just 2-5 days. The low stock position has increased replenishment requirements and supported fresh bookings, providing continued support to spot rebar prices.
Improving trade activity: Tight availability and low distributor inventories have encouraged selective restocking. Although monsoon-related construction constraints persist, buying interest has improved ahead of the post-monsoon demand season.
Improving real estate activity: Mumbai recorded 12,622 property registrations in September 2026 within the BMC jurisdiction, up 5% y-o-y and the highest September level in more than 14 years, according to Knight Frank India. The trend indicates resilient real estate activity and could provide additional support to construction steel demand.
Higher input costs: In September, Odisha Fe 62% iron ore fines prices increased by around INR 220/t m-o-m (4%), while coking coal costs rose by $50/t m-o-m (20%), raising overall steelmaking costs. The increase in key input costs strengthened mills’ pricing discipline, supporting rebar prices and reducing the likelihood of near-term price corrections.
Robust infrastructure outlook: Continued project awards across railways, power, water, and urban infrastructure during August-early September are supporting long-term visibility for BF-route rebar demand.
Outlook
Indian rebar prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by tight mill and distributor inventories, ongoing maintenance shutdowns, higher input costs and improving project and real estate activity. Construction activity is expected to strengthen after the monsoon, potentially providing further demand support. Ahead of the proposed construction restrictions in Delhi, market participants may increase restocking and fresh bookings, particularly as buyers seek to secure material before the curbs take effect. With several major mills yet to announce revised prices, the market remains watchful for further price hikes in the coming days.
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