Turkiye: Scrap prices hold steady w-o-w as weak rebar demand keeps mills cautious about fresh purchases

• High freight costs, tight European supply support prices
• Mismatch between bids and offers limits deal closure

Turkiye’s deep-sea scrap market remained largely stable during the week ending on 1 October, with limited trading activity and cautious mill buying keeping prices stable. Steelmakers continued to delay purchases amid weak rebar demand, while elevated freight and energy costs and reduced European scrap availability provided support to supplier offers.

US-origin market insiders noted that elevated freight costs continued to underpin scrap prices. Supramax freight from New Jersey to major ports in Turkiye was assessed at $38-41/t, while Rotterdam-Turkiye freight stood at around $38-39/t.

Price assessments

• US-origin HMS 80:20 stood at around $404/t CFR Turkiye, stable w-o-w.
• US East Coast HMS 80:20 stood at around $366/t FOB, up by $1/t w-o-w.

Market scenario

A Baltic-origin market participant said US-origin 90:10 offers were around $410/t CFR Turkiye, equivalent to approximately $405-406/t for HMS 80:20. European offers were indicated at around $399-403/t CFR.

A recent transaction during the IREPAS event on Monday, 28 September, involved Netherlands-origin material sold at around $395/t CFR Turkiye.

No fresh deep-sea transactions were reported during the week after that, as Turkish mills remained on the sidelines while assessing the outlook for finished-steel demand. High-grade HMS 80:20 was assessed at $404/t CFR Turkiye, while US East Coast HMS 80:20 was indicated at around $403/t CFR Turkiye.

Turkish mills have been delaying fresh scrap inquiries as weak rebar sales continue to weigh on procurement appetite. The gap between seller offers and buyer interest has therefore kept trading activity limited.

US suppliers were heard broadly offering around $410/t CFR, while tradable levels for US-origin HMS 80:20 were reported at $404-405/t CFR. Baltic-origin HMS was tradable around $400/t CFR, while EU-origin material was heard at $398-399/t CFR.

In the shortsea market, limited Turkish mill demand continued to weigh on sentiment. HMS 80:20 was assessed at $385-388/t CFR, with suppliers expected to accept lower levels if mills remain absent.

Domestic steel market

Turkish rebar demand remained subdued, with export activity muted as sellers increasingly focused on the domestic market. Domestic rebar prices were heard at $630-650/t exw, with southern mills at the lower end at $620-625/t exw, while export rebar was assessed at around $620-630/t FOB Turkiye, keeping the scrap-rebar spread at approximately $220-222/t.

“Mills were reluctant to commit to fresh scrap cargoes while assessing the sustainability of recent rebar sales. The weak downstream market has therefore limited restocking despite relatively firm scrap replacement costs,” a local steel market participant said.

Outlook

The Turkish scrap market is expected to remain stable in the upcoming days as weak rebar demand and cautious mill procurement limit deal activity. However, elevated freight and energy costs, along with reduced scrap flows from Europe, are likely to prevent a significant decline in prices. Market participants expect mills to return to the market once finished-steel demand improves, potentially supporting stable to slightly higher scrap prices.