- CIL’s September offtake exceed production by 6.59 mnt
- Plant receipts remained below coal burn on all 27 days
Union Coal and Mines Minister G Kishan Reddy said on 28 September that India faces no overall coal shortage, despite higher thermal power demand and monsoon disruptions to mining. Coal is being supplied by rail and road, he said, estimating that thermal power demand had increased 12-15% as hydro generation declined.
The data point to a more precise question: is enough coal arriving at power stations to match what they burn? Coal India Ltd (CIL) has raised production and dispatched even larger volumes this month. Yet Central Electricity Authority (CEA) reports show that, at the power plants they cover, aggregate receipts fell short of consumption on every day from 1 to 27 September.
Higher demand meets weaker hydro
During the first 27 days of September, India generated 157.01 TWh of electricity, up 11.6% from the same period in 2025. Hydro output fell 19.6% to 17.86 TWh. Coal generation rose 13.7% to 101.39 TWh, supplying roughly 75% of the net increase in total generation. Coal’s share of the generation mix increased from 63.4% to 64.6%.
Maximum demand met averaged 247.3 GW, against 217.6 GW a year earlier, and reached 269.1 GW on 10 September. Coal stations therefore had to support both higher electricity requirements and a hydro shortfall.
The monsoon has contributed to this imbalance. Rainfall data cited from IMD show a 12% all India deficit through 26 September, with pronounced regional variation. That pattern can restrict sustained reservoir inflows even when some areas experience heavy rain. Monsoon conditions have also disrupted mining in some coal-producing areas, as Reddy acknowledged. The southwest monsoon has begun withdrawing from northwest India, which may gradually help mining and transport, though a recovery in plant receipts must be demonstrated in the data.
CIL moves more coal than it mines
The CMPDI National Coal Portal shows CIL produced 49.35 mnt during 1-28 September, 8.6% more year on year and 2.6% above its month-to-date target. Offtake reached 55.94 mnt, up 11.5% year on year and 1% above target.
CIL has thus dispatched 6.59 mnt more coal than it produced in September, using coal already within its supply chain to maintain movement. Output differs sharply by subsidiary: MCL’s production rose 21.7% year on year, while NCL’s fell 27.0% and met only 73.5% of its month-to-date target.
CIL’s financial-year-to-date production stood at 316.76 mnt on 28 September, still 27.99 mnt below target. September’s improvement has not erased the earlier lag.
Gap at power plants persist throughout the month
BigMint’s analysis of the 27 daily CEA coal reports shows that covered plants received 63.45 mnt of coal from 1–27 September and consumed 70.70 mnt. The resulting 7.26 mnt receipt shortfall closely tracks the decline in reported plant stocks.
There was not a single day when aggregate receipts exceeded consumption. The closest was 20 September, when receipts of 2.588 mnt were still about 21,000 tonnes below burn. The daily gap narrowed at times, but it never reversed through 27 September.
CIL offtake and CEA plant receipts measure different stages and scopes of the coal chain. CIL’s dispatches include coal for customers beyond these power plants, while transit times and deliveries from other producers also affect what stations actually receive. Strong offtake therefore does not automatically translate into an immediate increase in power plant inventories.
Softer demand creates an opening, not yet a turnaround
Recent rains have eased demand from September’s highs. The comparison must account for the normal Sunday dip: maximum demand met was 218.8 GW on Sunday, 27 September, versus 229.9 GW the previous Sunday. It rebounded to 236.34 GW on Monday, 28 September, but remained below the 248.1 GW recorded on Monday, 21 September. This supports a genuine week-on-week easing without treating Sunday’s low as the new daily norm.
IEX trading also shifted. In the supplied day-ahead series, average market clearing prices fell from INR 7,531/MWh during 18-22 September to INR 3,554/MWh during 23-27 September, while final scheduled volume rose from an average 154 MU/day to 267 MU/day. Coal generation averaged about 3.48 TWh/day in the latter period, down from 3.88 TWh/day in the preceding five days. Lower burn could make stock rebuilding easier if deliveries remain strong.
But the CEA reports provide the necessary qualification: even after demand eased, receipts remained below consumption through 27 September. The government’s direction for large captive coal plants to maximise available generation from October, the extension of Section 11 directions for Tata Mundra, and a possible imported coal blending requirement may support supply, though the blending measure remains under consideration.
Reddy’s assurance that India has coal available is consistent with CIL’s substantial dispatches. The operational test now is whether coal arriving at power plants overtakes their daily burn — and then whether the recovery reaches the 82 plants with critical stocks. A sustained decline in demand could bring that turning point forward, but it had not arrived by 27 September.
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