India: Edible oil market remains under pressure as palm supply rises and soy oil imports surge

• Malaysian palm stocks rise to 2.82 million tonnes as higher output meets weaker exports
• India’s August soybean oil imports hit a record 628,736 t, keeping domestic availability comfortable

India’s edible oil market remained under pressure last week as rising Malaysian palm oil supply, higher inventories and comfortable domestic availability weighed on sentiment. Malaysian palm oil production increased 21.32% during September 1-15, while exports during September 1-25 were estimated to have declined 15-17% from the corresponding period. Stocks had already risen 7.48% month on month to 2.82 Mnt in August, while crude palm oil production increased 1.39% to 1.81 mnt.

Malaysia: Rising supply weighs on palm oil sentiment

Higher production combined with slower exports is increasing the likelihood of another inventory build in Malaysia. Industry participants cited by Malaysian media expect stocks to rise above the August level by end-September, with some estimates pointing to inventories exceeding 3 mnt.

Malaysian palm oil exports fell 7.5% month on month to 1.29 mnt in August, although cumulative January-August exports remained higher year on year. Slower buying from South Asia and the Middle East contributed to the decline in August shipments.

Palm oil futures have also remained technically weak after breaking below the 4,725 support level. With the relative strength index below 40, selling momentum remains elevated, while the next support zone is seen at 4,450-4,500.

India: High imports keep domestic availability comfortable

Strong import flows are keeping India’s edible oil market well supplied. According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, August edible oil imports rose 1.5% month on month to 1.572 mnt. Total vegetable oil imports, including non-edible oils, reached 1.609 mnt.

During November 2025-August 2026, cumulative vegetable oil imports increased 4% year on year to 13.884 mnt. Palm oil imports rose 7% in August to 782,761 t, while soybean oil imports jumped 26% to a record 628,736 t.

The latest SEA market indication puts imported crude palm oil at around INR 135,500/t, or INR 1,355/10 kg, on an ex-Mumbai/ex-Kandla basis. This remains an important reference for domestic buyers and refiners.

Soybean oil: Record imports add to price pressure

Soybean oil is also facing pressure from record imports and changing import economics. August imports crossed 600,000 t for the first time, reaching 628,736 t.

Earlier, domestic soybean oil prices were around INR 1,395/10 kg at Kandla against a reported landing cost of around INR 1,430/10 kg. The latest SEA indication for imported crude degummed soybean oil at around INR 135,500/t, equivalent to INR 1,355/10 kg, points to further adjustment in import-linked pricing.

Soybean oil had traded around INR 1,475/10 kg before the duty-cut announcement before moving lower. The INR 1,420 support has been breached, with INR 1,380 emerging as the next technical support. Domestic prices are likely to remain sensitive to global soybean oil values, currency movements and port availability.

India: Festive demand meets ample availability

The approaching Navratri, Dussehra and Diwali period is expected to support edible oil consumption, but the market is entering the festive season with substantial import availability.

Edible oil imports reached a 10-month high of 1.48 Mnt in July before remaining elevated at 1.57 Mnt in August. July imports included 730,965 t of palm oil and 498,881 t of soybean oil, indicating strong pre-festive buying by refiners.

Argentine soybean oil FOB values were around $1,199/t for September and October shipment positions in late August. Rupee movements and freight costs will also remain important variables for Indian import parity.

Outlook: Supply remains the key market driver

The near-term outlook remains weak to mixed. Palm oil is facing pressure from rising Malaysian inventories and slower exports, while soybean oil is dealing with record imports and comfortable domestic availability.

Festive demand could limit further downside, but a sustained recovery would likely require stronger international vegetable oil prices, faster inventory absorption and tighter domestic availability. Malaysian stock accumulation and palm oil technical support will remain key indicators, while soybean oil demand during the October-Diwali period will help determine the pace at which current supplies are absorbed.