Daily round-up: LME base metals trade mixed; Escondida copper supply risks rise after mine accident

  • Vedanta outlines fresh Odisha aluminium investment plans
  • US removes AD/CVD duties on qualifying Indian can stock

LME base metals traded mixed on 25 September. Zinc fell 1.40% to $3,900/t, recording the sharpest decline. Nickel followed, down by 1.04% to $16,329/t. Meanwhile, aluminium rose 0.55% to $3,268/t. Lead slipped 0.26% to $1,929/t, while copper edged 0.01% higher to $14,623/t.

SHFE remained closed on 25 September for China’s Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Trading resumes on 28 September.

LME inventories showed mixed trends. Zinc stocks rose 7.25% to 123,200 t, marking the largest daily move. Nickel inventories gained 0.11% to 278,898 t. Meanwhile, copper stocks fell 0.52% to 251,175 t and lead stocks eased 0.51% to 364,075 t. Aluminium inventories remained unchanged at 241,375 t.

Domestic market overview

India’s non-ferrous scrap market saw mixed movement across grades. Aluminium tense scrap fell to INR 248,000/t ex-Delhi, down INR 2,000/t or 0.8% d-o-d. Ex-Chennai prices declined INR 500/t or 0.2% to INR 248,500/t. Aluminium P1020 also fell INR 2,000/t or 0.6% to INR 353,000/t. The move came alongside a 0.82% decline in MCX aluminium.

Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%) rose INR 2,000/t or 0.1% d-o-d to INR 1,347,000/t, while MCX copper declined 0.34%.

Other updates

Hormuz tensions keep pressure on aluminium’s cost structure

Oil prices rebounded on 28 September after the US rejected an Iranian proposal linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 2.9% to $107.4/bbl. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern crude exports are expected to reach 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest since the conflict began. However, ongoing shipping risks continue to raise freight and insurance costs, keeping pressure on Gulf-linked aluminium supply chains.

Escondida labour accident adds copper supply uncertainty

BHP’s Escondida mine faces renewed supply uncertainty after a fatal accident temporarily halted operations. Production is now gradually resuming. Meanwhile, the supervisors’ union is voting on a new contract offer from 28-30 September. A rejection would trigger mandatory mediation before any legal strike. Escondida produced 1.26 mnt of copper in FY’26, while BHP expects around 1.1 mnt in FY’27 (Australian financial years run from July to June).

US removes AD/CVD duties on qualifying Indian can stock

The US Department of Commerce partially revoked anti-dumping/countervailing duty (AD/CVD) orders covering specified aluminium can stock from 24 September. The move improves market access for eligible Indian exporters and covers qualifying products under the common-alloy aluminium sheet orders. However, the separate Section 232 tariff remains in place.

Vedanta expansion, industry reforms shape India’s aluminium outlook

Vedanta plans to invest around INR 1 lakh crore in Odisha across aluminium, mining, refining and downstream manufacturing. The company is also considering expansion around its Jharsuguda operations. Meanwhile, the Aluminium Extrusion Manufacturers Association of India seeks lower energy and financing costs, tariff rationalisation and stronger safeguards against imports. Together, these developments point to potential growth in both primary aluminium supply and domestic downstream capacity.


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