- Jaipur mustard falls to INR 8,375/qtl as arrivals decline over 11.1% w-o-w
- Festive demand offers support, but cheaper competing oils limit upside
India’s mustard market remained range-bound to mildly bearish in the week ended September 23, with prices struggling to sustain gains above INR 8,500/qtl in Jaipur. Jaipur mustard had climbed to INR 8,525/qtl on September 16 before easing to INR 8,375-8,400/qtl, where it remained for the past three sessions. All-India mustard arrivals declined 11.1% week on week to 200,000 bags from 225,000 bags, tightening near-term availability but failing to generate enough buying interest for a sustained price recovery.
Prices face resistance at higher levels
Mustard prices were mixed across major markets on September 22. Jaipur was quoted at INR 8,375/qtl, while Sumerpur and Charkhi Dadri were at INR 8,520/qtl and INR 8,400/qtl, respectively. Delhi, Dolpur and Bharatpur were lower at INR 8,200, INR 8,010 and INR 7,965/qtl.
Bharatpur prices recovered from INR 7,871/qtl on September 19 to INR 7,965/qtl on September 22 but remained below the INR 8,000/qtl mark. In contrast, Shamsabad, Alwar, Morena and Kota were quoted substantially higher at INR 9,125, INR 9,050, INR 9,075 and INR 9,050/qtl, respectively.
The decline in arrivals has provided some near-term price support, but selling pressure at higher levels continues to limit gains. A sustained move above INR 8,500/qtl would be required to improve market sentiment.
Cheaper oils limit mustard demand
Mustard oil was quoted at INR 1,675/10 kg on September 22, carrying a significant premium over soybean oil at INR 1,420 and palm oil at INR 1,450. Sunflower oil was higher at INR 1,720/10 kg. The wide premium over soybean and palm oils remains a key constraint for mustard oil demand.
Import parity also remains unfavourable for competing oils. Refined CPO had a landing cost of INR 1,509/10 kg against a market price of INR 1,450, while RBD olein and soybean oil had landing costs of INR 1,622 and INR 1,503 against market prices of INR 1,450 and INR 1,420, respectively. Sunflower oil remained an exception, with a market price of INR 1,720 against a landing cost of INR 1,625.
Internationally, December soybean oil declined 1.35% to 67.92 cents/lb, while November palm oil futures were steady at MYR 4,730/mt. Soymeal futures gained around 0.6%, providing some support to the broader oilseed complex.
Festive demand provides downside protection
Demand for mustard oil could improve during Navratri-Dussehra and ahead of Diwali, potentially limiting further downside. However, part of the festive demand has already been covered, and stronger fresh buying would be needed to lift mustard prices decisively above INR 8,500/qtl.
Crude oil near USD 103/barrel could provide indirect support to edible oils if geopolitical tensions intensify, although this remains an external risk rather than a confirmed market trigger.
Outlook
The near-term outlook remains range-bound to mildly bearish. INR 8,500-8,525/qtl is the key resistance zone, while INR 8,250/qtl is the immediate support. Lower arrivals and seasonal demand may restrict downside, but the premium of mustard oil over soybean and palm oil is likely to cap gains. A break below INR 8,150/qtl could increase selling pressure.
Leave a Reply