India: Turmeric prices show mixed trend as futures weaken despite lower arrivals

• Sangli spot prices remain supported, while October futures fall 4.0% W-o-W
• Turmeric arrivals decline 40.1%, but higher stocks cap price gains

India’s turmeric market remained mixed during the week ended September 18, as lower arrivals provided some support to spot prices while weaker futures and rising stocks weighed on sentiment. BigMint’s Sangli benchmark was reported at INR 22,782/qtl on September 18, compared with INR 22,880/qtl on September 11, while Nizamabad prices declined 2.2% to INR 19,962/qtl from INR 20,413/qtl. Meanwhile, October futures fell 4.0% W-o-W to INR 20,268/qtl and December futures declined 0.7% to INR 20,414/qtl.

Arrivals fall sharply

Turmeric arrivals across major markets declined 40.1% W-o-W to 2,161 mt from 3,609 mt. The reduction in fresh supply provided some underlying support to the physical market, although price movements remained uneven. Sangli showed relative strength, while Nizamabad prices weakened, indicating differences in buying interest and market availability across trading centres.

The divergence between lower arrivals and mixed spot prices suggests that supply tightening alone has not been sufficient to generate broad-based price gains.

Futures remain under pressure

October futures declined to INR 20,268/qtl from INR 21,120/qtl, while December futures slipped to INR 20,414/qtl from INR 21,054/qtl. October open interest increased marginally by 0.2% to 108,480 mt from 108,240 mt. December OI rose more sharply by 8.1% to 7,185 mt from 6,645 mt.

The increase in OI alongside falling prices indicates higher market participation during the decline, although OI alone does not establish whether fresh short or long positions dominated.

Stocks limit upside

Reported stocks across Erode-Salem, Nizamabad, Sangli and Basmat increased 2.7% W-o-W to 19,679 mt from 19,161 mt. Stocks rose in Nizamabad, Sangli and Basmat, while Erode-Salem stocks remained unchanged.

Higher inventories, despite lower arrivals, indicate that market availability remains adequate and could limit near-term upside.

 Outlook

Turmeric prices are likely to remain mixed to cautious in the near term. Lower arrivals may support spot prices, but elevated stocks and weaker futures could cap gains. A sustained improvement in buying interest or a decline in inventories would be important for stronger price momentum.