- Kerala’s September electricity use averages an unusually high 93.6 MU/day
- UP faces a 2,000-3,000 MW deficit despite improving coal stocks
- Delayed captive mine development keeps UP dependent on Coal India
Power-supply pressures in Kerala and Uttar Pradesh are highlighting an important shift in India’s electricity sector: adequate coal availability does not necessarily translate into sufficient generation during periods of sharply higher demand.
Kerala is struggling with unusually high consumption and evening demand, while Uttar Pradesh has faced a reported deficit of 2,000-3,000 MW. However, the Coal Ministry maintains that UP’s shortage is not being caused by insufficient coal.
The two cases point instead to demand forecasting, generating-unit availability, procurement arrangements, logistics and delayed captive mine development.
Kerala demand defies seasonal trend
Kerala’s electricity consumption averaged approximately 93.6 million units (MU) per day during September — an unusually high level for the southwest monsoon period, when cooler weather normally moderates demand.
Maximum demand has approached 5,008 MW and remained elevated late into the night, increasing pressure on Kerala State Electricity Board after solar generation falls.
Kerala relies heavily on electricity procured from central generating stations, bilateral contracts and power exchanges. Its own generation is largely hydro-based, making availability sensitive to rainfall and reservoir conditions.
High demand across the national grid has also reduced the volume of competitively priced electricity available. KSEB secured an additional 150 MW from central generating stations but reportedly deferred an NTPC offer priced at around INR 30/kWh, illustrating the cost of relying on short-term purchases during tight market conditions.
Kerala’s immediate problem is therefore not a local coal shortage. It is the combination of unexpectedly strong demand, limited firm generation and dependence on external supplies during the evening peak.
UP deficit persists despite adequate coal
Uttar Pradesh has reportedly faced a power deficit of 2,000-3,000 MW, with peak demand exceeding 30,750 MW while available supply reached around 27,000 MW.
Initial reports attributed the shortage partly to coal-supply disruptions caused by heavy rainfall and waterlogging in mining areas, alongside outages at generating units.
The Coal Ministry, however, said none of the thermal plants operated by Uttar Pradesh Rajya Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Limited (UPRVUNL) was in the critical-stock category as of 15 September.
Coal stocks increased from 0.725 mnt on 1 September to 0.841 mnt on 15 September. Average daily receipts of around 0.09 mnt exceeded consumption of approximately 0.083 mnt, resulting in a continued stock build.
The Ministry also said unloading constraints at some plants had led the Railways to restrict rake deployment. Sending additional coal would therefore not necessarily increase generation unless plant-level handling constraints were resolved.
UPRVUNL’s thermal fleet operated at a plant load factor of only around 48% during the month. The Ministry consequently attributed lower generation to unit outages and operational constraints rather than inadequate fuel availability.
Captive block remains undeveloped
The UP situation has renewed attention on the Saharpur Jamarpani coal block in Jharkhand.
The block, containing more than 973 mnt of geological reserves, was allotted to UPRVUNL in August 2015 to supply its thermal plants. More than 11 years later, it has not been operationalised, leaving the state’s generating company dependent on Coal India for its entire coal requirement.
The delay contrasts with 14 other captive blocks allotted to the power sector after August 2015 that have commenced production.
The Coal Ministry has urged UP to accelerate development of Saharpur Jamarpani to diversify supply and strengthen long-term fuel security. However, its large reserves will become meaningful only after land acquisition, statutory approvals, mine development and evacuation infrastructure are completed.
Outlook
Kerala and UP illustrate two different forms of power-sector vulnerability.
Kerala’s exposure arises from insufficient firm generation and dependence on externally procured electricity during the evening peak. Stronger demand forecasting, additional long-term contracts, storage and better management of nighttime consumption will be required to reduce reliance on expensive short-term purchases.
UP has coal available, but low plant utilisation, outages and fuel-handling bottlenecks are constraining generation. Its failure to operationalise a 973 mnt captive block has also preserved its dependence on Coal India more than a decade after allocation.
The broader challenge for India is therefore no longer limited to mining enough coal. It is increasingly about converting available fuel into dependable electricity through efficient generating stations, timely logistics, diversified procurement and better coordination between coal producers, railways and state utilities.
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