- Cumulative energy deficit reaches 349.5 MU during 1-13 September
- Punjab leads energy shortfall; south faces sharper peak-hour stress
India’s electricity system recorded a cumulative energy shortage of 349.54 million units (MU) during 1-13 September 2026, equivalent to 0.48% of the recorded requirement, according to an analysis of National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) data.
Although the overall percentage deficit remained below 1%, shortages became acute during specific hours and in certain states. The deficit intensified during 9-12 September, coinciding with high demand, limited dispatchable supply and exceptionally elevated electricity prices in the Day-Ahead Market.
Daily power shortage
The four days from 9-12 September accounted for almost 53% of the period’s total energy shortage. The largest daily deficit was 54.25 MU on 11 September, while the maximum 8 pm shortage reached 6,777 MW on 9 September.
Northern region bears largest deficit
Northern India accounted for more than half the national energy shortage and recorded the highest regional deficit rate. The southern region ranked second, with its shortages showing a stronger concentration around peak and non-solar hours.
Western India recorded the third-largest deficit. Its shortage was more persistent across the day rather than concentrated solely at the evening peak.
Punjab, Haryana lead cumulative shortfall
Punjab recorded the largest state-level energy shortage at 88.51 MU, followed by Haryana at 56.15 MU. Together, the two states accounted for almost 40% of the national deficit.
Punjab’s stress was compounded by a reported 1,051 MW reduction in its share from the central power pool. However, a lower central allocation does not translate directly into an equivalent power shortage because states can respond through local generation, exchange procurement and load management.
Maharashtra recorded a cumulative deficit of 37.94 MU across 12 days, while Karnataka registered 33.19 MU. Maharashtra’s request for increased coal supplies to its thermal plants highlights the importance of sustaining coal-fired output during the high-demand period.
Kerala, Tamil Nadu face peak-hour stress
Kerala recorded shortages on 12 of the 13 days, with a cumulative deficit of 24.58 MU. Its maximum demand shortage reached 639 MW on 9 September. The state also faced unusually strong late-night consumption, prompting multiple supply interruptions and efforts to secure additional power.
Tamil Nadu’s cumulative shortage was lower at 9.59 MU, but its maximum demand deficit reached 912 MW on 9 September — the highest state-level peak shortage during the period. This supports reports of exceptionally high September electricity demand and renewed unscheduled power cuts.
The divergence shows that cumulative energy shortages alone do not capture the severity of short-duration peak stress. A state can record a relatively small full-day deficit but still face a substantial shortage during critical hours.
Exchange market confirms non-solar scarcity
The shortage pattern is consistent with activity in the IEX Day-Ahead Market. Purchase bids during 1-13 September increased more than fivefold y-o-y, while sell bids declined by nearly 45%.
Scarcity was particularly severe after renewable generation declined. Between 6 pm and midnight, every hourly observation reached the INR 10,000/MWh ceiling, while overnight prices also remained close to the maximum.
This indicates that India’s immediate constraint is not only total electricity availability but access to dispatchable supply during evening and late-night hours.
Outlook
Coal generation, reliable fuel deliveries and thermal-unit availability will remain critical while demand stays elevated and hydropower underperforms. Southern states are particularly exposed after sunset, while northern shortages remain larger in cumulative terms.
Additional exchange procurement can provide some relief, but the price-ceiling events show that market supply is itself constrained. Until hydropower improves or additional flexible capacity becomes available, utilities may continue to face high procurement costs and the risk of localised power cuts.
Note: NLDC shortages are based on information reported by states and may not capture all suppressed demand or distribution-level load shedding.
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