India: Cumin prices weaken w-o-w as futures decline amid rising arrivals

• Spot prices fall 0.4%, while Sep and Oct futures decline w-o-w
• Ex-Unjha and FOB Mundra prices rise marginally between 4-11 Sep 

India’s cumin market weakened during the week ended 11 September, with futures prices declining alongside spot market indications. The spot price fell 0.4% w-o-w to INR 20,995/qtl from INR 21,086/qtl on 11 September. September futures declined 2.3% to INR 20,960/qtl from INR 21,455/qtl, while October futures fell 2.2% to INR 21,565/qtl from INR 22,040/qtl.

Ex-Unjha cumin prices increased to INR 21,285/qtl on 11 September from INR 21,100/qtl on 4 September, up 0.9%. FOB Mundra prices rose 0.8% to INR 22,630/qtl from INR 22,450/qtl over the same period. The marginal gains in BigMint’s physical market indications contrasted with the decline in futures prices.

Futures market signals bearish sentiment

The futures market showed a divergence in open interest across contracts. September OI (open intrest) declined 45.3% to 3,150 contracts from 5,766 contracts, alongside lower prices, indicating short covering. October OI increased 54.8% to 6,444 contracts from 4,164 contracts, while prices declined, pointing to fresh short buildup.

The October premium over September widened to INR 605/qtl from INR 585/qtl, despite declines in both contracts. The movement indicates reduced exposure in the near-month contract and increased selling pressure in October futures.

Higher arrivals weigh on market

Cumin arrivals increased 6.0% w-o-w to 6,657 t from 6,277 t, indicating higher incoming supply. Stocks declined marginally by 0.9% to 5,234 t from 5,280 t, suggesting broadly stable reported availability despite the rise in arrivals.

The combination of higher arrivals and weaker futures indicates continued pressure on the market, while the marginal stock decline provides limited support.

Outlook

Cumin prices may remain under pressure in the near term, with rising arrivals and fresh short buildup in October futures weighing on sentiment. However, marginal gains in Ex-Unjha and FOB Mundra prices, along with lower September OI and a slight decline in stocks, could limit the downside. The market is likely to remain sensitive to changes in arrivals and futures positioning.