- All-India peak power shortage nearly doubles to 5.28 GW by 10 September
- ~64% of power supply from coal, stock drawdown sustains thermal generation
India’s power system is beginning to show a more visible electricity deficit even as coal-fired generation remains remarkably resilient, suggesting thermal plants are defending output by drawing down already-depleted fuel inventories rather than materially curtailing generation.
GRID-INDIA data show the regional peak power shortage rising to 5,281 MW on 10 September, almost double the 2,684 MW recorded on 1 September. Daily energy shortage increased even more sharply, from 13.47 MU to 46.72 MU over the same period.
The deterioration is concentrated in the northern and southern regions, while the eastern region remains comparatively comfortable and continues exporting substantial electricity to other parts of the country. Yet the more important finding is what has not happened. Despite thermal coal stocks falling rapidly and the number of critically stocked plants rising, coal generation has not collapsed. Instead, it has increased.
Power shortages become visible
Northern India currently carries the largest deficit.
On 10 September, the region accounted for around 56% of India’s regional peak shortage and roughly 60% of the daily energy deficit. GRID-INDIA also recorded shortages at individual states including Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, while Haryana, Punjab and Rajasthan registered significant daily energy deficits even when instantaneous maximum demand was largely met.
But the most striking change has occurred in the south. The region’s peak shortage increased from just 100 MW on 1 September to 2,136 MW on 10 September, while energy shortage rose from only 0.5 MU to 11.37 MU.
Andhra Pradesh recorded 3.72 MU of energy shortage, Kerala showed a 141 MW maximum-demand deficit, and Tamil Nadu registered 4.30 MU of energy shortage on 10 September.
This does not prove coal shortages caused each deficit. GRID-INDIA does not attribute state-level unmet demand to individual fuels. But the simultaneous appearance of growing electricity shortages and worsening coal inventories is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Coal generation remains strong, for now
Coal generation has actually risen during the period of worsening shortages.
GRID-INDIA recorded 3,751 MU of coal-fired generation on 1 September, equivalent to 63% of total generation. By 10 September, coal output had increased to 3,944 MU, accounting for 64% of India’s generation mix.
The 15-minute system data tell the same story. Thermal generation was still supplying around 165-166 GW during evening hours on 10 September, when solar output had effectively disappeared. This is not the profile of a coal fleet that has already been broadly forced to back down because it cannot obtain fuel. Instead, the system appears to be using coal inventories as the shock absorber.
Inventories are paying the price
This explains the rapid deterioration in thermal plant stocks. Between the beginning of September and 10 September, total coal stocks at monitored thermal plants fell by roughly 3.2 mnt, or around 11%, while the number of critical-stock plants rose from about 45 to 62. Over the same period, CEA daily data indicate coal receipts continued to lag consumption.
The result is a widening mismatch: coal generation is rising, but coal inventories are falling. This is the central feature of the present market. Thermal generators are not yet materially protecting coal inventories by reducing output. They are instead continuing to generate and allowing their stock buffer to shrink.
Evening hours reveal the real stress
The problem becomes more visible once solar generation falls.
GRID-INDIA reported an all-India non-solar-hour shortage of 6,143 MW on 10 September, compared with 2,146 MW on 1 September. This matters because evening demand must increasingly be met by coal, hydro, gas, nuclear and storage.
With coal already providing almost two-thirds of electricity generation and gas remaining relatively expensive, thermal availability becomes particularly important during these hours. That makes falling coal inventories more consequential even before they cause actual generation outages.
BigMint view
India does not yet appear to be facing a broad coal-induced curtailment of thermal generation. The evidence instead points to something potentially more important. The power system is maintaining high coal-fired generation by consuming its fuel buffer, even as regional electricity deficits become increasingly visible.
Between 1 and 10 September:
- coal generation increased by around 5%
- thermal plant coal inventories fell roughly 11%
- critical-stock plants increased from about 45 to 62
- regional peak shortage almost doubled from 2.7 GW to 5.3 GW
- daily energy shortage rose from 13.5 MU to 46.7 MU
So far, coal has helped prevent the electricity deficit from becoming substantially worse. But that also means the system has less protection if demand stays elevated or coal receipts fail to improve.
The immediate question is therefore no longer simply whether coal inventories are low. It is how long thermal plants can continue generating at current levels while stocks keep falling. If receipts catch up with burn, the present shortage may remain manageable.
If they do not, the next stage of the tightening cycle could be materially different: low inventories could begin translating from a coal-stock problem into an actual generation constraint.
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