- Kota arrivals decline 14%
- Futures decline as open interest rises
India’s coriander market weakened during the week ended September 4, with Kota spot prices and futures declining despite lower arrivals and reported stocks. BigMint’s Kota benchmark fell 1.1% week on week (WoW) to INR 15,936/qtl on September 4 from INR 16,111/qtl on August 28. Meanwhile, October and December futures declined 4.9% and 3.9%, respectively, indicating continued selling pressure in the forward market.
Spot market sees limited support from lower supply
Kota arrivals declined 13.5% w-o-w to 888 tonnes (t) from 1,027 t, while reported stocks across Kota and Gondal fell 4.1% to 13,940 t from 14,535 t. Kota stocks declined 4.5% to 12,945 t from 13,559 t, whereas Gondal stocks increased 1.9% to 995 t from 976 t.
The decline in arrivals and total stocks provides some support to the physical market. Kota arrivals declined mainly due to seasonal factors, while the next round of fresh arrivals is still some time away, limiting immediate supply. However, the fall in Kota prices suggests that lower incoming supply has not been sufficient to offset selling pressure, mainly due to low demand.
Futures signal fresh short buildup
The October contract declined to INR 15,614/qtl from INR 16,414/qtl, while December fell to INR 16,052/qtl from INR 16,706/qtl. Open interest (OI) increased alongside the price decline, with October OI rising 6.4% to 19,550 contracts from 18,370 contracts and December OI increasing 36.8% to 1,860 contracts from 1,360 contracts.
The combination of falling prices and rising OI indicates fresh short buildup, suggesting that market participants are positioning for further weakness. The simultaneous decline in both contracts points to a bearish shift in forward-market sentiment.
Outlook
The near-term outlook remains cautiously bearish. Lower arrivals and stocks could provide intermittent support to spot prices, but weaker futures and rising OI may continue to limit recovery. Unless buying interest strengthens or futures sentiment improves, coriander prices are likely to remain under pressure.
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