- Continued maintenance shutdowns, rising project demand prompt hikes
- Sharp increase in coking coal costs supports mills’ firm pricing stance
Indian tier-1 steelmakers raised their rebar list prices by up to INR 4,500/t ($48/t) for early September deliveries. Notably, an eastern-based steelmaker increased its prices by INR 3,000/t m-o-m, while a major PSU steelmaker has raised prices by up to INR 3,000/t, further strengthening the overall price trend.
Project rebar prices were reported in the workable range of INR 58,000-60,000/t ($614-634/t) landed. Buying activity improved as project customers increased procurement, while traders selectively replenished inventories in anticipation of firmer primary prices and tightening spot availability.
Several integrated mills remain under scheduled maintenance, although some have resumed production. Market sources indicate that inventory levels at major mills are currently limited to around 2-5 days, while distributor-level inventories also remain low. The resulting tightness in spot availability has prompted some producers to temporarily stop accepting fresh project bookings, while several mills are yet to announce revised prices.
Key market drivers
Tightening supply: Ongoing maintenance shutdowns have reduced primary rebar availability in the spot market. A major South India-based PSU steelmaker has remained under maintenance for more than two months, further tightening regional supply.
Low inventories: Inventory levels at major steel mills have declined to around 2-5 days, while distributors are also carrying limited stocks. This has increased the urgency for replenishment and provided support to spot prices.
Improved trade activity: Tight availability and lower distributor inventories have encouraged selective restocking by buyers, strengthening market sentiment despite continued monsoon-related constraints on construction activity.
Improving real estate activity: Mumbai recorded 12,503 property registrations in August 2026 within the BMC jurisdiction, up 11% y-o-y and the highest August level in more than 14 years, according to Knight Frank India. The improvement in property registrations indicates resilient real estate activity and could support construction steel demand.
Higher input costs: Rising coking coal prices, up $44/t m-o-m to $297/t CNF Paradip in early September amid tightening supply, have increased steelmaking costs and strengthened mills’ pricing stance, limiting the scope for price corrections.
Robust infrastructure demand outlook: Infrastructure project awards worth over INR 1.2 lakh crore across roads, railways, power, water and urban infrastructure during August-early September continue to support BF-route rebar demand, providing mills with healthy order visibility for the long-term.
Outlook
Rebar prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by tight mill and distributor inventories, ongoing maintenance shutdowns, higher input costs and improving project and real estate activity.
Market participants expect construction activity to strengthen after the monsoon, which could further improve rebar demand. With several major mills yet to announce revised prices, the market is likely to remain closely watched for further price increases in the coming days.
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