- Punjab private plants cut generation as coal buffers shrink
- Coal inventories at several large stations approach 3 days
India’s power-sector coal squeeze is beginning to move beyond declining inventory numbers and into generation risk, with two large private power stations in Punjab already operating at reduced output while coal stocks across the country continue to fall.
Central Electricity Authority (CEA) data show total stocks at monitored thermal power plants declined from 28.64 mnt on 1 September to 26.91 mnt on 5 September, equivalent to only 46% of normative inventory. The number of critical stock plants rose from 45 to 58 over the same five days.
The decline reflects a persistent mismatch between deliveries and burn. Plants received around 10.69 mnt during 1-5 September but consumed 12.94 mnt, producing a cumulative shortfall of about 2.25 mnt.
More importantly, the national aggregate is increasingly masking severe stress at individual plants.
Punjab provides first visible warning
Punjab offers the clearest example of falling coal stocks beginning to affect generation.
At the 1,400 MW Rajpura TPP, stocks plunged from 109,700 t on 1 September to only 48,800 t on 5 September, a decline of more than 55% in four days. Inventory was just 15% of its 320,400 t normative requirement by 5 September.
Against CEA’s daily requirement of about 16,000 t at 85% PLF, the remaining plant inventory represents only about three days of coal on that basis.
The daily balance remains adverse. Rajpura received only 8,100 t on 5 September against consumption of 16,300 t. Unless receipts accelerate substantially, stocks would therefore continue declining.
The 1,980 MW Talwandi Sabo TPP is also under pressure. Its stocks fell from 186,700 t on 1 September to 143,300 t by 5 September, equivalent to 29% of norm. Against its CEA daily requirement of around 25,000 t, this represents roughly 5.7 days of inventory.
Punjab’s power minister said on 6 September that generation in the state had fallen by around 1,500 MW, with Rajpura and Talwandi Sabo operating at around half their capacity because of constrained coal availability.
This is significant because Rajpura and Talwandi Sabo together represent 3,380 MW of capacity.
But picture inside Punjab is not uniform
CEA data show the three PSPCL-owned stations — Lehra Mohabbat, Goindwal Sahib and Ropar — had combined stocks of 694,200 t on 5 September, equivalent to 117% of their normative requirement.
The Ministry of Coal has consequently disputed the description of Punjab’s problem as simply a national coal shortage. It said PSPCL’s plants had adequate stocks, while coal already offered by CIL to the private plants had not been fully booked and lifted. The ministry said CCL had offered 500,000 t to Nabha Power and Talwandi Sabo, of which around 410,000 t was booked and only around 310,000 t lifted; BCCL had separately offered 350,000 t to Nabha Power, against which 98,000 t had been lifted, as per a statement released by the Press Information Bureau.
That distinction reinforces a broader issue emerging nationally: coal availability upstream does not necessarily mean coal availability at the power station.
Which plants look most exposed?
The 5 September CEA report reveals several plants where actual stock is now equivalent to roughly three days of CEA’s 85%-PLF coal requirement or less.
Among the most exposed are Anpara C in Uttar Pradesh, with only 14,500 t against a daily requirement of around 15,500 t — less than one day’s requirement — and just 8% of normative stock.
In Maharashtra, Butibori TPP held only 10,500 t, roughly 1.3 days of requirement, while Dahanu TPS had 12,300 t, equivalent to around 1.7 days. Both are flagged critical by CEA.
Other large stations with particularly thin buffers include:
Several of these are significant generating stations rather than small marginal units.
Rajasthan appears particularly vulnerable. All seven RRVUNL stations in the CEA report are critical, with a combined inventory of only 364,000 t against normative stocks of 2.08 mnt — just 17% of norm. Chhabra-II held about 2.9 days of requirement, Kota around three days and Suratgarh TPS about three days.
Southern India also merits close attention. Bellary had around 2.5 days of requirement, while Yadadri was around 2.6 days. APGENCO’s Rayalaseema station was similarly near 2.6 days, while Damodaram Sanjeevaiah held around 2.6 days based on CEA’s standardised requirement.
The real issue is increasingly downstream
This creates an unusual coal-market situation.
Coal India still holds around 76 mnt at its pitheads, despite having liquidated approximately 55 mnt since the beginning of FY’27. August CIL supplies actually increased 5.5% y-o-y to 60.6 mnt, including 48.46 mnt supplied to the power sector.
Yet power-plant inventories have slipped below 27 mnt.
The problem is therefore increasingly about the speed with which mine-mouth coal can be converted into delivered coal at individual generating stations.
Punjab illustrates precisely why this distinction matters. Coal may exist within the national system, but Rajpura’s plant stock has fallen by more than half in four days, and deliveries remain below burn. Generation has consequently already been reduced, according to the state government.
The same risk is now building at a wider group of plants.
For the market, the next indicator to watch is therefore not simply Coal India production. It is whether daily plant receipts begin materially exceeding consumption, particularly at stations with less than three to five days of effective inventory.
If that does not happen soon, India’s coal-stock problem could increasingly shift from an inventory story into a generation-availability story.
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