- Supply uncertainty and higher freight costs aid sentiment
- Firm Chinese buying drives iron ore price recovery
Iron ore fines (Fe 61%) spot prices rose by $1/dmt d-o-d to $101/dmt CFR China on 8 September 2026, marking the highest level since 17 June. The recovery was supported by stronger physical buying in China, expectations of higher freight costs and tighter seaborne availability from major exporters. Uncertainty over future cargoes from an Australian miner also kept market participants cautious and provided support to prices.
Chinese physical market activity picked up significantly during the day, particularly at ports, where trading volumes increased sharply from the previous session. Seaborne trade, in contrast, remained largely steady. The improvement in portside activity suggested that buyers were gradually accepting current price levels, providing a firmer base for the benchmark.
Supply-side concerns also supported prices. Shipments from Australia and Brazil were lower, while uncertainty around Australian seaborne supplies added another layer of caution. Although the reported guidance was not an outright ban, mills remained watchful for any broader restrictions, given sellers sizeable contribution to China’s iron ore imports.
Higher crude oil prices added to the bullish sentiment by raising expectations of increased ocean freight costs. Oil prices continued to climb following reported attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and threats of wider military action by Yemen’s Houthi movement. Rising tensions between the US and Iran further increased concerns over energy supply disruptions, keeping freight and energy costs in focus.
On the demand side, expectations of stronger steel consumption during the traditional peak season and falling steel inventories offered some support. However, mills remained cautious in the seaborne market. China-based steelmakers were reportedly advised not to rush purchases for October-November delivery amid ongoing negotiations between miner and China Mineral Resources Group.
The reported advisory weighed mainly on medium-grade seaborne material, while higher fuel and coking coal costs added to mills’ procurement caution. Trading liquidity remained thin as participants preferred to reassess their positions rather than chase higher prices. Portside prices nevertheless moved up, although steelmakers showed limited urgency to replenish blend fines.
Noted that the reported restrictions apply to seaborne cargoes scheduled for delivery from October onwards. Overall, the physical market remained firm, but buying interest was still selective amid uncertainty over future seaborne procurement.
DCE iron ore futures remain positive
January 2027 iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) increased to RMB 739.5/tonne (t) ($109/t) on 9 September. The firmer futures market added to the positive tone in iron ore, although cautious seaborne buying and uncertainty around upcoming cargoes continued to temper market confidence.
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