- Rice planting stood at 37.91 million hectares as of August 14, down nearly 4% year-on-year.
- Record carryover stocks are expected to offset the production decline, with MY 2025/26 ending stocks estimated at 58.5 mnt.
India’s rice production outlook for marketing year (MY) 2026/27 has been lowered to 147 mnt as weak southwest monsoon rains have affected kharif crop planting and raised concerns over yields. The impact has been particularly significant in eastern and southern peninsular regions, where a large share of farmland is unirrigated. The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall for August-September, which could further affect soil moisture and irrigation water availability during critical crop growth stages.
Rice planting trails last year
Rice planting stood at 37.91 million hectares as of August 14, 2026, compared with 39.34 million hectares during the same period last year, marking a decline of nearly 4%. While improved monsoon activity in July supported planting, the optimal planting window has ended in most states. Some late rice planting in southern states may continue through September. Field reports indicate that crops in irrigated areas are progressing well, while unirrigated areas continue to face moisture stress.
Record stocks cushion supply
Despite the lower production outlook, India is expected to maintain more-than-sufficient domestic rice supplies due to high carryover stocks. MY 2025/26 ending stocks have been raised to a record 58.5 mnt, while MY 2026/27 ending stocks are forecast at 52.5 mnt. Government procurement has also remained strong. Procurement through August 13 was estimated at 57.2 mnt, more than 5% above the year-earlier level. MY 2025/26 government procurement is expected to reach 58 mnt, compared with 55.9 mnt last year.
Rice exports remain strong
India’s MY 2025/26 rice exports are estimated at 23 mnt, slightly lower than earlier expectations but still a record level. Exports reached 17.2 mnt through June 2026, compared with 17.7 mnt a year earlier. For MY 2026/27, rice exports are forecast at a new record of 25 mnt, supported by competitive Indian prices and continued government efforts to offload excess stocks.
Outlook
Weak August-September rainfall could further pressure MY 2026/27 production, particularly in unirrigated regions. However, high carryover stocks are likely to offset the decline and keep domestic rice supplies comfortable, while competitive prices and elevated stock availability should support export prospects.
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