- Rising billet prices improve scrap’s competitiveness for mills
- Mills remain focused on covering September requirements
Imported deep-sea scrap prices in Turkiye remained broadly stable w-o-w on 27 August, with limited fresh bookings keeping HMS 80:20 around $375/t CFR. Firmer billet and rebar prices provided some support to scrap sentiment, but weak finished-steel demand and selective mill buying continued to limit upside.
Turkish mills remained focused on covering September requirements while weighing scrap purchases against weak long-steel demand and the availability of alternative feedstock, including domestic billet. This kept buying interest selective and prevented a stronger response to the activity seen earlier in the week.
Suppliers, meanwhile, remained reluctant to lower offers, citing tight scrap availability and firm freight costs. With replacement costs still supported by elevated logistics expenses and disruptions to Black Sea metallic flows, the market remained balanced, with participants waiting for clearer signs of additional September bookings from Turkish mills.
Price assessments
- US-origin HMS 80:20 stood at around $375/t CFR Turkiye, down by $1/t w-o-w.
- US East Coast HMS 80:20 stood at around $340/t FOB, down by $1/t w-o-w.
Recent deals
- A Baltic-origin HMS 80:20 bulk cargo sold to West Marmara at $369/t CFR; bonus at $389/t.
- A Netherlands-origin cargo of around 25,000-30,000 t sold to West Black Sea, including 12,000 t of HMS at $370/t CFR and the rest of the volume of bonus/shredded at around $390/t CFR.
US and European offers remained available, but limited buying kept trade subdued. Some suppliers may target above $380/t CFR from mid-September, depending on US collection costs and supply-demand conditions. Firm dry bulk freights continued to increase the delivered cost of imported scrap. Black Sea metallic deliveries also remained disrupted, forcing Turkish mills to rely more heavily on scrap and alternative metallics, including billet and slab from the Far East.
Billet and rebar market
A Baltic-based trader highlighted, “Turkish billet prices strengthened during the period, with a domestic producer reportedly selling around 120,000 t at $545/t, compared with around $530/t three weeks earlier. Turkiye has also turned to Malaysian billet as Russian material has become less competitive due to higher Black Sea freight costs.”
“At the same time, Turkish rebar export offers increased to around $590-600/t FOB towards the second half of the week. Mills have attempted to raise finished steel prices in response to higher raw material costs, although weak downstream demand has limited their ability to fully pass on these increases.”
Higher billet prices have improved scrap competitiveness, but further gains will depend on Far East billet availability and mills’ ability to raise finished steel prices.
Outlook
Imported scrap prices in Turkiye are likely to stay broadly stable over the coming week, with firm freight and restricted Black Sea metallic flows keeping replacement costs elevated. However, mills are unlikely to chase higher scrap prices unless finished-steel and billet economics improve.
Market participants expect mills to remain requirement-driven, particularly for September cargoes, while comparing imported scrap against Far East billet availability. If billet remains readily available at competitive delivered levels, mills could push scrap bids lower; conversely, tighter billet availability would improve scrap buying interest.
A Turkiye-based trader said, “No significant price increase is expected this week, as the outlook depends on billet availability from the Far East. Scrap prices may need to be reassessed accordingly, while mills continue to face difficulty in increasing finished steel prices.”
For suppliers, US collection costs, freight, and Turkish rebar prices will remain the key variables in setting offers. While tariffs and protectionist measures are supporting steel-market sentiment, weak downstream margins and limited room for Turkish mills to increase rebar prices could cap scrap upside.
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