Copper bulls are back in charge

• CME copper longs hit two-year high, driven by AI demand.
• Mine disruptions tighten supply, while LME stocks fall.

Metal Intelligence centre: According to the latest CME COT report, copper’s long positions rose to a two-year high. A total of 10,897 lots were added in July alone, the highest monthly increase since September 2024.

The return of bulls in recent weeks was triggered by strong results from major US technology companies and their increased AI infrastructure investments. This has reinforced expectations of higher future copper demand.

On the other hand, recent disruptions at mines have accentuated ore shortages.

• Grasberg, one of the world’s largest copper mines, is facing a slower-than-expected recovery following the mud-flow accident in September 2025. The mine is expected to recover to 65% of its capacity this year and to full capacity only by next year. This has tightened concentrate availability, especially for Asian smelters.
• Caserones, a major copper mine in Chile, faced severe winter weather and storm-related disruptions in 2026. Lundin Mining subsequently cut its 2026 production guidance to 120,000–130,000 tonnes from 130,000–140,000 tonnes, highlighting the impact on mine supply.
• Kamoa-Kakula, a major copper complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo, also faced waterlogging-related disruptions, reducing copper estimates by around 1 32,000–160,000 tonnes and further tightening global mine supply.

Tightening ore availability is forcing smelters in China to cut output. The country’s refined copper production declined 3.7% month-on-month from its record high in July 2026.

On the other hand, the price gap between CME and LME prices continues to attract surplus copper inventories into CME warehouses, which have set a series of record highs since last year. This shift has been tightening the availability of metal elsewhere, with LME copper stocks falling 39% over the past three months.

Overall, hopes of strong AI-led demand, constrained mine supply curtailing refined production at Chinese smelters, and the geographic shift in inventories have helped bulls return to copper.

Note: This article has been published as part of a content partnership between Metal Intelligence Centre and BigMint.