- Aluminium records steepest monthly production decline
- Historical trends indicate production recovery in Aug’26
China’s base metal production fell sharply in July 2026, following record or near-record output across several metals in June.
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), aluminium production saw the largest m-o-m decline in July, falling by 83,000 t, followed by copper with a decline of 49,000 t. Lead and zinc production fell by around 32,000 t and 18,000 t, respectively.
However, the historic data suggest that a similar trend can be seen in the previous years.
Usually, China’s base metal production tends to decline in July due to seasonal maintenance, weather-related disruptions and lower operating rates during the summer months. However, the magnitude of this year’s decline was notably larger than in recent years.
The steep decline was also driven by extreme weather conditions across China. July saw multiple typhoons, heavy rainfall and flooding, disrupting transportation, raw-material supply and plant operations. These disruptions further weighed on production amid an already slowing domestic economy and softer industrial activity.
The data further suggests that despite a sharp and consistent decline in July, the country tends to recover in the month of August. Despite the sharp decline in July, historical trends suggest that China’s base metal production tends to recover in August as weather conditions improve and maintenance-related disruptions ease. A rebound is therefore likely, although the extent will depend on raw-material availability and demand conditions.
Note: This article has been published as part of a content partnership between Metal Intelligence Centre and BigMint.
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