- Domestic production to fall nearly 25%, limited farmer selling supports prices
- Rising imports from Sri Lanka, along with softer export demand, cap upside
India’s black pepper market remains balanced between a sharp domestic supply decline and steady imports. Production is expected to fall by nearly 25% in 2026, particularly in Kerala, while farmers are releasing stocks gradually. However, imports from Sri Lanka and other origins are cushioning the deficit, while cautious demand and softer exports are limiting price gains. Improved monsoon rainfall has also slowed spot activity.
Prices, supply
In Kochi, common black pepper prices eased INR 5-10/kg to INR 700-710/kg August m-o-m, while garbled pepper recovered INR 5/kg to INR 755-765/kg. Indian clean black pepper, 500 g/l, is offered from New Delhi at EUR 5.8-6.2/kg on FOB/FCA terms.
Vietnam, the world’s leading exporter, remains a key price reference, with 500-550 g/l black pepper offered at $5,990-6,050/tonne (t), equivalent to around EUR 5.5-5.6/kg, keeping the price gap with India narrow and global prices elevated but broadly stable.
Kerala farmers are releasing stocks gradually as current prices are not considered attractive against the lower crop and higher production risks. Increased direct shipments to consuming states have also reduced visible arrivals at traditional markets such as Kochi, meaning arrivals may understate actual availability.
Sri Lankan and other imported pepper remains the key counterweight to India’s lower crop. Sri Lanka supplies approximately 25,000 tonnes of pepper to India annually, helping cushion the domestic deficit and limit price gains.
Demand, global market
India’s black pepper exports fell to 3,237 t in April-May 2026 from 3,662 t a year earlier, while the export value declined to INR 2.029 billion from INR 2.155 billion. The decline reflects selective overseas buying amid elevated global prices.
A sustained global rally would likely require another supply disruption or stronger demand. Weather conditions in Kerala have improved after an earlier monsoon deficit. Heavy rainfall in early August and adequate moisture in major pepper-growing belts are supporting vine health, while 20-24 August forecasts indicate further light to moderate showers that could disrupt harvesting and logistics in hilly areas.
Outlook
India’s pepper market is likely to remain largely stable. The nearly 25% production decline and limited farmer selling provide support, but imports and cautious demand cap rallies. Prices will remain sensitive to import arrivals and farmer selling as cash needs increase. The narrow India-Vietnam price spread also leaves the market sensitive to freight, forex, and trade-policy changes.
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