- August stainless steel output planned at 3.69 mnt
- Indonesian output expected to decline 12.7% in August
China’s stainless steel production is expected to increase in August, led by a sharp recovery in 300 series output, while production in Indonesia is projected to decline amid weaker order availability. Crude steel production by major Chinese stainless steel producers is estimated at 3.69 million tonnes (mnt) in August, up 3.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 11.3% year-on-year (y-o-y).
300 series to drive China’s production
The increase in Chinese stainless steel output is expected to be primarily driven by the 300 series, with August production projected at 1.98 mnt, up 7.4% m-o-m and 13.7% y-o-y.
In absolute terms, 300 series production is expected to increase by around 136,300 t from July. The projected recovery comes after July output declined as some mills reduced production.
The 400 series is also expected to edge higher to 692,000 t, up 0.7% m-o-m and 21.3% y-o-y.
Meanwhile, 200 series production is projected at 1.02 mnt, down 2.9% m-o-m, but up 1.4% y-o-y.
July output sees mixed grade trends
China’s stainless steel crude production stood at 3.58 mnt in July, rising 1.8% m-o-m and 11.5% y-o-y.
The increase was primarily supported by higher 200 and 400 series production, while 300 series output declined.
200 series production rose sharply to 1.05 mnt, up 19.5% m-o-m, an increase of around 171,400 t. The rise was attributed to increased production at several major mills.
In contrast, 300 series production fell to 1.84 mnt, down 6.9% m-o-m, or around 137,000 t, due to production reductions at some mills.
400 series output increased 4.2% m-o-m to 687,000 t, while rising 20.2% y-o-y.
300 series supply pressure likely to increase
The production trend is expected to reverse in August, with 200 series output declining slightly while 300 series production returns to the 1.97 mnt range.
The sharp increase in 300 series production could add to supply pressure in China’s domestic stainless steel market, particularly if downstream demand fails to improve at the same pace.
Indonesia production expected to decline
In contrast to China, stainless steel production in Indonesia is expected to decline in August.
Production at major Indonesian stainless steel producers is projected to fall by around 50,000 tonnes m-o-m, equivalent to a 12.7% decline, amid a reported shortage of orders.
The divergence between higher Chinese production and lower Indonesian output is expected to remain a key factor for regional stainless steel supply and market sentiment in August.
Outlook
China’s planned production increase, particularly in the 300 series, could place additional pressure on the stainless steel market if demand remains subdued. Meanwhile, the expected production reduction in Indonesia may partially offset the additional Chinese supply.
Market participants will closely monitor actual Chinese mill production, downstream demand and Indonesian order flows to assess whether the projected August supply changes translate into renewed inventory pressure or improved market balance.
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