- Section 232 uncertainty continues to support global prices
- LME stocks drop 24%, supporting global prices
Copper cathode prices in western India increased sharply w-o-w during the week ended 6 August 2026, supported by a strong rally in LME copper prices, higher MCX futures and firmer import premiums. Buying activity, however, remained subdued as downstream consumers limited purchases to immediate requirements amid elevated prices and rising premiums.
As per BigMint’s assessment, ex-Mumbai copper cathode prices rose to around INR 1,395,000/t on 6 August from nearly INR 1,333,000/t last week. Similarly, Ahmedabad prices increased to around INR 1,397,000/t from approximately INR 1,335,000/t over the same period.
The sharp increase in domestic prices was primarily driven by stronger global benchmarks. LME copper prices climbed above the $14,000/t mark, reaching their highest level in nearly three months, while MCX copper futures registered a 3.6% w-o-w increase, lending further support to domestic cathode prices.
The rally was underpinned by continued drawdowns in LME inventories, which have declined by nearly 24% over the past month to their lowest level in five months, reinforcing concerns over tightening physical availability.
Market sentiment
Sellers remained bullish amid tightening global supply conditions. Meanwhile, buying activity stayed largely requirement based as elevated copper prices and rising import premiums discouraged inventory replenishment.
Global supply conditions continued to underpin market sentiment. Exchange inventories outside the United States remained under pressure as large volumes of refined copper continued flowing into the US to capitalize on the premium between COMEX and LME prices ahead of the pending US Section 232 decision on refined copper imports.
COMEX inventories have now risen to around 719,000 t, while the continued diversion of cathodes to the US has tightened physical availability in Europe and Asia, pushing spot premiums higher across these regions.
The market also remained supported by weaker-than-expected Chilean mine production, while improved output from Peru provided only limited relief to the global supply outlook.
Adding to supply concerns, rising sulfur prices have sharply increased sulphuric acid costs for solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) copper producers, prompting some miners to curb cathode production. Capstone Copper, for instance, plans to reduce oxide cathode output at its Mantoverde operation during H2 2026, highlighting how higher input costs are beginning to affect refined copper supply.
The overdue US Section 232 decision remains the key uncertainty for the global copper market. Market participants continue to assess multiple possible outcomes, ranging from immediate tariffs to delayed implementation, phased duties or exemptions for selected countries.
Until greater policy clarity emerges, the COMEX-LME premium is expected to continue attracting refined copper into the US, limiting availability in other regions and supporting elevated global prices.
Outlook
The sustained COMEX-LME premium is likely to keep refined copper flowing into the US, tightening physical availability in other regions and supporting global prices.
Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a weaker US dollar and improving risk sentiment could provide further support to industrial metals. In the near term, the outcome of the US tariff decision will remain the key factor determining global copper trade flows, inventories and price direction.
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