- EU Q4CY’26 quota booked; market participants wait for next cycle
- Middle East sees selective buying but participants remain cautious
Indian HRC export offers showed mixed trends w-o-w across key destinations during the assessment week ended 4 August. Export offers to the EU increased amid strong quota-driven bookings and improved buying interest before the October-December (Q4CY’26) quota was fully exhausted. In contrast, export offers to the Middle East and Southeast Asia declined amid cautious buying sentiment, while weak demand and unworkable bid levels in Vietnam continued to limit trading activity.
HRC export offers to EU rise w-o-w: Indian HRC export index to the EU rose by $10/t w-o-w to around $590/t FOB, compared with $580/t in the previous week, driven by strong quota-led bookings and improved buying interest before the October-December quota was fully booked.
A major Indian steel exporter stated, “The October-December EU quota has been fully booked. As a result, EU buying activity has stalled, with participants awaiting the next booking cycle, which is expected to begin in October for the subsequent quota period.”
HRC export offers to Middle East, Southeast Asia decline: Indian HRC export index to the Middle East and Southeast Asia declined by $15/t w-o-w to around $510/t FOB from $525/t in the previous week, as mills lowered offers amid cautious buying sentiment.
Offers to the Middle East fell by $5/t w-o-w to around $515/t FOB from $520/t in the previous week, with freight to Jeddah estimated at around $60/t. Moreover, a booking of around 50,000 t was heard concluded last week at similar levels for August shipment. In comparison, Chinese HRC export offers to the region remained stable at around $560/t CFR Jeddah.
A Middle East-based source stated, “While some bookings have emerged, overall buying activity remains cautious as unresolved geopolitical tensions in the region continue to weigh on market sentiment and create uncertainty. Most market participants are closely monitoring developments and remain in a wait-and-watch mode, preferring to assess the situation further before committing to purchases.”
Similarly, Indian HRC export offers to Vietnam declined by $5/t w-o-w to around $515/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City from $520/t CFR in the previous week. A major Indian steel exporter stated, “Demand in Vietnam remains weak. Although some bids have emerged, buyers’ target prices remain well below workable levels for mills, limiting the likelihood of transactions and keeping trading activity subdued.”
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is likely to remain under pressure in the coming week across key destinations. In the EU, no further export bookings are expected as the October-December quota has already been fully booked, with buyers awaiting the next booking cycle. In the Middle East, persistent geopolitical tensions are expected to keep participants in a wait-and-watch mode, limiting buying interest. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, weak steel demand and unworkable bid levels are likely to continue restricting bookings, keeping overall export momentum subdued.
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