- Rising used vehicle exports affect domestic dismantling
- Total scrap generation from EoL vehicles in CY’25 was 1.76 mnt
Japan’s ferrous scrap generation from end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) is estimated to fall to 1.76 million tonnes (mnt) in 2025, the lowest level in 25 years, according to the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF). The volume is down 2.5% y-o-y and marks the second consecutive annual decline, as rising used vehicle exports reduced the number of vehicles dismantled domestically.
According to JISF’s latest estimates published in Quarterly Tetsugen (Summer 2026 edition), shredded scrap generation is expected to decrease by 2.2% y-o-y to 1.66 mnt, while press-processed scrap is projected to decline by 6.4% to 101,000 t. Both categories have now recorded year-on-year declines for two consecutive years.
Domestic vehicle dismantling is projected at 2.85 million units in 2025, down 2.2% (70,000 units) from the previous year. Although the total number of end-of-life vehicles is expected to rise 1.4% y-o-y to 4.49 million units, domestic scrap generation has been curtailed by an 8.1% increase in used vehicle exports, which are forecast to reach 1.64 million units. The shift in end-of-life vehicle flows has reduced the volume of vehicles available for dismantling within Japan, weighing on domestic scrap generation.
This trend could tighten the availability of automobile-derived ferrous scrap in Japan over the medium term, particularly shredded grades, as exporters increasingly compete with domestic recyclers for end-of-life vehicles.
Note: This article has been published in accordance with a content exchange agreement between SteelDaily and BigMint.
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