- Bid-offer disparity and previous bookings keep trades muted
- Better domestic realisations keep exporters on the sidelines
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al₂O₃) export index declined marginally by $2/t w-o-w to $100.5/t FOB east coast on 29 July 2026. Export trading activity remained subdued during the assessment period, with no fresh deals concluded. Market participants largely adopted a wait-and-watch approach as global iron ore market remained dull this week.
Buying interest from China remained limited and scattered across grades. Some cool-off in coking coal prices though lent some support to the market. Export offers were not aggressive as the domestic market was already short on supply and sellers were busy dispatching previously booked loadings.
Meanwhile, pellet inventories across 34 major Chinese ports rose marginally by 0.02 mnt w-o-w to 5.87 mnt, indicating steady consumption despite comfortable overall iron ore availability.
Rationale
- Zero (0) confirmed deal from India’s east coast was recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade, and, therefore, this category was allotted 0% weightage for today’s price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and eight (8) were considered for the calculation of the index and given a balance 100% weightage.
Market updates
Export trading activity remained subdued during the assessment period, with slower buying interest and no fresh spot deals concluded. Market participants attributed the inactivity to a widening bid-offer gap, as buyers remained cautious amid softer seaborne iron ore prices and awaited clearer market direction.
According to market sources, buyers were indicating bids at around $113-114/t CFR China, while sellers were seeking $118/t CFR China or higher, leaving a significant pricing disparity that prevented transactions.
An international trader said, “The gap between buyers and sellers is simply too wide at the moment. Buyers are comfortable around $113-114/t CFR, whereas sellers are not willing to come below $118/t CFR. Until either side changes its stance, spot trading is likely to remain limited.”
Despite the lack of export deals, sellers were under little pressure to reduce offers as the domestic pellet market has started witnessing improved offtake and better trading volumes. Moreover, with over 800,000 tonnes of export pellet deals already concluded during the month (yet to be dispatched), overseas buyers were also in no hurry to book additional cargoes.
Market participants are now closely monitoring the outcome of China’s upcoming Politburo meeting, which is expected to provide fresh cues for the seaborne iron ore market.
Another international trader commented, “Iron ore swaps are currently hovering around $97-98/t, and the market is waiting for signals from the Politburo meeting. Unless fresh policy support emerges, Fe 61% iron ore prices in China are likely to remain range-bound over the near term. Meanwhile, buying interest from Chinese mills is subdued due to seasonally weaker steel demand, and India’s ongoing monsoon is also expected to keep export activity relatively slow.”
Moreover, better domestic realisations in the recent couple of days has softened the interest of sellers to look overseas.
Domestic vs export market
The pellet export realisation was recorded for Fe 63% at INR 7,400-7,500/t ($77-78/t), dropping by INR 300/t this week while domestic realisation (Fe 62.5%) gained w-o-w by INR 250/t ($2.5/t) to INR 7,950/t ($83/t) exw. Thus, the widening spread in domestic over export market realisation defied exporters interest.
Factors impacting pellet exports
Chinese iron ore fines prices decline w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index declined by $1/t w-o-w to $97/dmt CFR China on 28 July. Weaker commodity sentiment following a sharp decline in crude oil prices and lower steel production in China weighed on the market. However, expectations of fresh policy support from Beijing helped limit the downside. Prices came under pressure as easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices, weakening cost-side support across the commodity complex.
DCE iron ore futures weaken w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2026 contract settled at RMB 739/t ($110-111/t) on 29 July, down by RMB 3/t ($1/t) w-o-w.
Outlook
India’s pellet export market is expected to remain soft in the near term amid slow buying interest and subdued trading activity. With sellers remaining less aggressive and concentrating to domestic market, trade volumes will remain low.
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