- Spot prices remain firm despite correction in futures, while rising open interest indicates fresh market participation
- Delayed sowing and uneven monsoon rainfall continue to support medium-term market sentiment
Turmeric futures corrected during the week ended 24 July as traders booked profits following the recent rally. Despite the decline in futures, the broader market sentiment remained firm, supported by lower arrivals, delayed sowing across key producing states, and concerns over uneven monsoon rainfall that could tighten supplies in the upcoming season. Rising open interest (OI) across active contracts also pointed to fresh participation, indicating that the recent decline was largely driven by profit booking rather than long liquidation.
Spot market remains resilient despite futures correction
The August NCDEX turmeric contract settled at 21,178, down 2.6% week on week from 21,750. The October contract eased to 20,682 from 21,006, while the December contract declined to 20,674 from 22,120. In contrast, physical markets remained firm, with Sangli spot prices rising 3.9% week on week to 22,247 from 21,401, while Nizamabad prices increased to 20,251 from 20,046, reflecting steady buying interest from stockists and processors despite weakness in futures.
Lower arrivals and higher open interest support market
Turmeric arrivals declined to 10,455 tonnes during the week from 10,920 tonnes, indicating reduced farmer selling and tighter physical availability. At the same time, exchange-monitored stocks increased across all delivery centres. Stocks at Erode-Salem rose to 438 tonnes from 388 tonnes, Nizamabad increased to 2,732 tonnes from 2,602 tonnes, Sangli climbed to 5,963 tonnes from 5,582 tonnes, and Basmat reached 4,954 tonnes from 4,675 tonnes, taking total exchange stocks to 14,087 tonnes, compared with 13,247 tonnes a week earlier.
Open interest also strengthened during the week, reinforcing continued bullish participation despite the correction in prices. August OI increased to 29,445 lots from 29,125 lots, October rose to 7,540 lots from 7,341 lots, and December advanced to 340 lots from 295 lots, suggesting that fresh positions continued to enter the market.
Weather risks continue to underpin market sentiment
Market participants continue to monitor sowing progress in Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, where delayed planting and below-normal rainfall in several turmeric-growing belts have raised concerns over acreage and crop establishment. Although El Niño conditions have weakened, uneven rainfall distribution continues to create uncertainty over production prospects. Industry participants noted that some farmers remain cautious about expanding acreage due to weather variability and higher cultivation costs. Meanwhile, steady export enquiries and expectations of improved domestic demand ahead of the festive season continue to support the physical market.
As of 28 July, profit booking persisted, with the August contract trading at 20,518, October at 20,220, and December at 20,310, down 1.77%, 1.62%, and 3.44%, respectively, from the previous close. Despite softer prices, market participation remained healthy, with open interest standing at 29,235 lots for August, 8,215 lots for October, and 305 lots for December, indicating rollover into deferred contracts rather than widespread liquidation.
Outlook
Turmeric futures are expected to remain volatile in the near term as traders continue profit booking after the recent rally. However, lower arrivals, firm spot prices, rising open interest, delayed sowing, and weather-related production risks are likely to keep downside limited. Market direction will largely depend on monsoon progress, acreage developments, and export demand in the coming weeks.
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