- Farmers limit fresh sales in anticipation of better price realisations
- NCDEX warehouse stocks fall further, reinforcing bullish sentiment
India’s cumin market remained firm during the week ended 24 July, as reduced physical arrivals and a continued drawdown in exchange warehouse stocks supported prices despite cautious sentiment in the futures market. Spot prices increased by INR 260/tonne (t), or 1.27% w-o-w, to INR 20,755/t from INR 20,495/t in the previous week. The market drew support from lower spot availability as farmers limited fresh sales in anticipation of better price realisations, while buyers continued to procure on a need-based basis.
Lower arrivals tighten spot supplies
Weekly arrivals across major producing markets declined to 7,621 t, down 549 t, or 6.7%, from 8,170 t recorded a week earlier. The slowdown in arrivals reflected restrained farmer participation, with many producers preferring to hold stocks amid expectations of stronger prices. Traders reported that the reduced inflow of fresh supplies improved buying interest in the physical market and helped maintain firm pricing, although domestic consumption remained measured.
Declining exchange stocks strengthen market fundamentals
The supply outlook was further supported by a steady decline in NCDEX-accredited warehouse stocks. Exchange inventories fell to 5,975 t as of 24 July from 6,235 t on 17 July, a reduction of 260 t, or 4.2%. The continued depletion of deliverable stocks indicates sustained physical offtake and highlights tightening near-term availability. Market participants believe that if arrivals remain below seasonal levels, shrinking exchange inventories could continue to provide underlying support to spot prices in the coming weeks.
Futures dip amid cautious sentiment
In the derivatives market, the July futures contract expired during the review period, while deferred contracts recorded marginal declines. The August contract eased to INR 20,980/t from INR 21,010/t, and the September contract slipped to INR 21,245/t from INR 21,285/t. The limited correction suggests that traders remain cautious, anticipating adequate supply availability over the medium term and refraining from aggressive speculative positions despite stronger physical market fundamentals.
The near-term outlook remains moderately bullish, supported by lower arrivals and declining exchange stocks. However, further price gains are expected to remain gradual as domestic demand continues to be selective and export buying remains price-sensitive. Going forward, market participants will closely monitor arrival trends, export inquiries, warehouse stock movements, and procurement activity to assess the sustainability of the current upward momentum.
Leave a Reply