- US halves 50% aluminium tariff for new smelter investments
- China-owned copper mine in Pakistan faces militant blockade
LME base metals traded mixed on 22 July. Lead recorded the strongest increase, rising 1.50% d-o-d to $1,897/t, followed by zinc, up 1.13% to $3,592/t, aluminium, which gained 1.11% to $3,193/t, and nickel, up 0.87% to $17,234/t. Copper bucked the trend, slipping 0.55% to $13,808/t amid profit booking after recent gains.
LME inventories declined across all major base metals, reflecting continued tightness in exchange-monitored stocks. Copper inventories registered the sharpest decline, falling 1.47% d-o-d to 290,925 t, while zinc stocks dropped 0.60% to 108,500 t. Aluminium inventories eased 0.54% to 278,275 t, lead inventories slipped 0.45% to 449,750 t, and nickel inventories declined 0.43% to 272,040 t, reinforcing expectations of a constrained physical supply environment.
Domestic market overview
India’s non-ferrous scrap market remained largely stable on 22 July. Aluminium tense scrap (loose), ex-Delhi, was unchanged at INR 265,000/t, while ex-Chennai prices also held steady at INR 255,000/t.
Meanwhile, copper armature scrap (Cu 99%), ex-Delhi, increased by INR 7,500/t, or 0.60% d-o-d, to INR 1,267,500/t, supported by firm domestic buying interest despite a modest correction in LME copper prices.
Oil rallies above $95 on Red Sea attacks
Global crude oil prices extended their gains on 23 July, with Brent crude rising 3.96% d-o-d to $95.93/bbl, while WTI crude advanced 3.04% to $88.02/bbl. Natural gas climbed 3.41% to $2.97/MMBtu.
Oil prices climbed to their highest level in more than six weeks after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, intensifying concerns over crude exports through the Bab el-Mandeb shipping lane. The simultaneous threats to both key maritime routes have heightened fears of supply disruptions across global energy markets.
Despite the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting a 2 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories for the week ended 17 July, inventories remain around 6% below the five-year seasonal average, limiting the bearish impact of the data. Market participants continue to monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as any prolonged disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb could tighten global oil supplies and keep crude prices elevated.
Other updates
US eases aluminium tariffs to spur domestic smelter investment
The Trump administration will reduce Section 232 aluminium tariffs for companies investing in new or expanded US smelting capacity, allowing approved projects to import primary aluminium feedstock at half of the current 50% tariff rate. The move aims to strengthen the domestic aluminium supply chain for defence applications, as the number of US smelters producing high-purity aluminium has fallen from 22 to just four over the past two decades.
The US is projected to meet only 25% of its aluminium demand by 2029, highlighting the need for additional capacity. Companies must begin construction on approved projects by early 2029 to qualify for tariff relief, while the administration has simultaneously tightened sourcing rules for critical materials from countries such as China and Russia.
China-owned copper mine in Pakistan faces militant blockade
A militant blockade at the Chinese-operated Saindak Copper-Gold project in Pakistan has heightened concerns over copper concentrate supply to China, with the mine warning that operations could halt within one month if logistics disruptions persist. The project accounts for the majority of Pakistan’s roughly $750 million in annual copper exports, almost all of which are shipped to China, making it an important overseas feedstock source for Chinese smelters. Any prolonged disruption could tighten concentrate availability, keep treatment charges (TCs) under pressure and support higher refined copper premiums in China.
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