- High-grade pellet tenders afloat; market awaits results
- Limited buying keeps export market range-bound
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al₂O₃) export index declined marginally by $0.5/t w-o-w to $102.5/t FOB east coast on 22 July 2026. Export trading activity remained subdued during the assessment period, with no fresh deals concluded. Market participants largely adopted a wait-and-watch approach as several high-grade pellet export tenders remained afloat, with their results expected to provide fresh pricing direction.
Buying interest from China remained limited amid seasonally weak steel demand. Export offers softened slightly in line with cautious market sentiment, although export realisations continued to remain broadly at par with domestic prices, preventing any sharp correction.
As per market participants, a high-grade pellet cargo was afloat and is yet to be concluded. Moreover, no fresh cargoes were confirmed concluded during the current publishing window.
Meanwhile, pellet inventories across 34 major Chinese ports declined by 0.14 mnt w-o-w to 5.85 mnt, indicating steady consumption despite comfortable overall iron ore availability.
Rationale
- Zero (0) confirmed deal from India’s east coast was recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade, and, therefore, this category was allotted 0% weightage for today’s price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Ten (10) indicative prices were received, and seven (7) were considered for the calculation of the index and given a balance 100% weightage.
Market updates
Export trading activity remained subdued during the assessment period, with no fresh deals concluded as buyers and sellers remained apart on pricing expectations. Market participants attributed the muted activity to the recent softening in international iron ore prices, which weighed on pellet sentiment and prompted buyers to adopt a cautious approach.
An international trader said: “International iron ore prices have weakened over the past week, and buyers are not showing aggressive interest at current levels. Most bids are around $101/t FOB, whereas sellers are still targeting $103/t FOB and above. Until this bid-offer gap narrows, spot trading is likely to remain limited.”
Meanwhile, a few high-grade pellet export tenders were floated during the week, with market participants closely awaiting their outcomes for clearer pricing direction. The tender results are expected to provide the next indication of market direction and could influence export offers in the near term.
Domestic pellet demand also remained subdued. However, export realisations continued to remain broadly at par with domestic prices, preventing any significant correction in export offers despite the absence of fresh buying activity.
Market participants were expecting a positive outcome from the ongoing negotiations between Australian miners and the CMRG, which could have provided fresh direction to the seaborne iron ore market. However, with the discussions still unresolved, participants continued to adopt a cautious wait-and-watch approach.
An international trader commented: “Meanwhile, buying interest from Chinese mills remained subdued amid seasonally weak steel demand. In addition, the ongoing monsoon in India is expected to keep export trading activity relatively slow, with market participants anticipating range-bound sentiment until fresh demand or tender outcomes emerge.”
Domestic vs export market
The pellet export realisation was recorded for Fe 63% were at INR 7,600-7,800/t ($80.5/t) remaining stable this week while domestic realisation (Fe 62.5%) gained w-o-w by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 7,700/t ($80.5/t) exw. Thus, the decent margin in export over domestic market realisation still persist.
Factors impacting pellet exports
Chinese iron ore fines prices decline w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index increased by $2/t w-o-w to $98/dmt CFR China on 21 July. Trading remained thin, with steel consumption remained weak due to seasonal rainfall and high temperatures, which continued to curb construction activity. Most end users purchased only to meet immediate requirements, avoiding inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, expectations of higher seaborne supply after the start of Simandou production, coupled with increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, further dampened market sentiment.
DCE iron ore futures weakend w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2026 contract settled at RMB 742/t ($111-112/t) on 21 July, down by RMB 7/t ($1/t) w-o-w.
Outlook
India’s pellet export market is expected to remain range-bound in the near term amid limited buying interest and subdued trading activity. The outcome of ongoing high-grade pellet export tenders will be closely watched for fresh pricing cues.
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