- Spot and futures prices advance across all active contracts
- Exchange stocks decline while arrivals remain largely stable
India cumin prices extended their upward trajectory during the week ended 17 July, supported by firm physical demand, lower exchange warehouse stocks, and expectations of continued tight supplies. Both spot and NCDEX futures contracts registered week-on-week gains, although open interest in the near-month contract declined sharply due to contract expiry-related position unwinding rather than a deterioration in market sentiment.
Spot market remains supported
The NCDEX spot price increased by INR 144/t (0.71%) to INR 20,495/t on 17 July from INR 20,351/t a week earlier. Market participants indicated that domestic buyers and exporters remained active, while farmers continued to market produce selectively, anticipating better realizations. This balanced supply-demand situation kept spot prices on a firm footing throughout the week.
Futures curve reflects positive market sentiment
The 20-July futures contract gained INR 385/t (1.90%) to INR 20,685/t, outperforming the spot market as traders covered short positions before expiry. The 20-August contract rose by INR 435/t (2.11%) to INR 21,010/t, while the 18-September contract increased by INR 375/t (1.79%) to INR 21,285/t. The premium in deferred contracts over spot prices suggests that market participants continue to expect prices to remain firm over the coming weeks.
Open interest shifts to near-month contracts
Open interest in the 20-July contract dropped sharply to 414 lots from 4,863 lots in the previous week, reflecting contract expiry and long liquidation. The 20-August contract also witnessed a decline in open interest to 3,090 lots from 6,684 lots, indicating rollover of positions. Meanwhile, open interest in the 18-September contract rose to 407 lots from 138 lots, signalling fresh participation in deferred contracts and reinforcing expectations of sustained price strength.
Warehouse stocks decline; arrivals remain steady
NCDEX warehouse stocks fell by 152 MT (2.38%) to 6,235 MT from 6,387 MT a week earlier, reflecting continued offtake from exchange-accredited warehouses. Meanwhile, mandi arrivals remained almost unchanged at 8,170 MT, compared with 8,191 MT in the previous week, indicating that farmers continued to release supplies at a measured pace despite the price improvement.
Overall, the week’s performance points to a fundamentally supportive cumin market. Lower exchange stocks, resilient demand, and stable arrivals continue to underpin prices, while the shift in open interest towards deferred contracts indicates that traders remain constructive beyond the expiry of the July contract. In the short term, cumin prices are expected to remain firm, with export demand, stock movements, and farmer selling patterns likely to dictate the market’s next direction.
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