- June exports rebound, but H1 shipments remain under pressure
- Supply cuts and policy optimism support domestic steel prices
China’s steel market showed a modestly firmer trend during the week ended 17 July, as lower production, declining inventories and improved sentiment provided support to domestic prices. However, weak seasonal demand, subdued downstream buying and persistent uncertainty in overseas markets continued to limit the upside.
China exported 10.32 million tonnes (mnt) of steel in June 2026, up 6.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), reflecting stronger monthly shipments despite an increasingly challenging global trade environment. However, the improvement was insufficient to reverse the broader trend during the first half of the year. Cumulative exports during January-June 2026 declined 5.6% y-o-y to 54.874 mnt, as weaker overseas demand, expanding trade barriers and a stronger yuan continued to weigh on China’s export performance.
At the same time, China’s crude steel production rose 0.4% y-o-y to 83.67 mnt in June 2026, marking the first y-o-y increase since April 2025, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The increase was supported by export-oriented manufacturing activity, while domestic consumption remained sluggish despite retail sales inching up 1% y-o-y.
Raw materials front
Iron ore spot prices edge up w-o-w: Iron ore fines benchmark prices for Fe 61% rose w-o-w by $1/t w-o-w to $100/dmt CFR China on 17 Jul’26. Seaborne iron ore prices edged higher despite subdued trading activity, as concerns over freight costs and the possibility of supply disruptions kept sentiment firm. Mills remained watchful after negotiations between major miner and its workers failed to reach an agreement, paving the way for planned strike action. Meanwhile, weaker-than-anticipated Chinese macroeconomic indicators reinforced expectations of further policy stimulus, lending additional support to prices.
a) Spot pellet premium rises w-o-w: Spot pellet premium for Fe 65% grade pellet gained by $0.1/t to $23.6/t CFR China on 15 July.
b) Spot lump premium edged up w-o-w: Spot lump premium edged up w-o-w by $0.026/t to $0.2305/t CFR China on 17 July.
Global met coke market stays steady as PHCC prices slide: China’s met coke market remained largely stable during the assessment week, supported by healthy coke plant operating rates and sustained producer margins. However, underlying demand softened as weakening steel mill profitability led to maintenance shutdowns, with market participants anticipating lower pig iron production in the coming weeks.
The proposed tenth round of coke price increases remained under negotiation, with steelmakers resisting further hikes to contain raw material costs amid expectations of a market correction. Nonetheless, tight coking coal availability and stable freight rates continued to provide fundamental support to global coke prices.
In the seaborne coking coal market, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices declined sharply by $8/t w-o-w to $229/t FOB Australia, weighed down by falling steel prices, subdued buying interest from steel mills, and lower bid levels. Reflecting the softer international market, BigMint’s PHCC index eased by $4/t w-o-w to $250/t CNF Paradip, India, as Indian buyers adopted a cautious procurement strategy, expecting further price corrections amid weakening downstream steel market fundamentals.
Billet prices edge higher w-o-w on tighter supply: Chinese billet prices edged higher during the week ended 17 July, supported by improved market sentiment, lower mill output, and declining social inventories despite weak seasonal steel demand. BigMint assessed domestic billet at RMB 2,990/t ($441/t) , up RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w from RMB 2,970/t ($438/t) on 10 July.
Raw material costs remained broadly supportive, with iron ore hovering around $100/t, although softer coke prices capped further gains. In the export market, Chinese billet offers were heard at around $458/t FOB, slightly below $460/t FOB a week earlier, as mills continued seeking overseas orders despite weak buying interest and strong regional competition.
Weekly steel price trend
Rebar prices up w-o-w: Rebar prices in China were increased by RMB 40/t ($6/t) w-o-w to around RMB 3,230/t ($477/t) as on 18 July, compared with RMB 3,190/t ($471/t) in the previous week. Furthermore, SHFE rebar futures (October 2026 contract) rose by RMB 31/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,109/t ($459/t) as on 18 July from RMB 3,078/t ($454/t) a week earlier.
China’s rebar prices increased w-o-w, supported by improved market sentiment following positive macroeconomic developments and a stronger performance in futures markets. Lower rebar production also reduced supply pressure and provided additional support to spot prices.
However, weak construction demand and seasonal rainfall continued to limit buying activity, capping the upside in prices.
Furthermore, China’s Shagang Steel has kept its domestic long steel prices unchanged for mid-July 2026 sales, reflecting cautious sentiment amid weak seasonal demand and subdued spot market activity. The producer maintained prices at
- Rebars (16-25 mm): RMB 3,400/t ($502/t)
- Coiled rebars (8-10 mm): RMB 3,530/t ($522/t)
- Wire rods (6-10 mm): RMB 3,440/t ($508/t)
Domestic hot- rolled coil (HRC) prices increase w-o-w: Chinese domestic HRC prices increased by RMB 20/t ($3/t) w-o-w to around RMB 3,130/t ($462/t) on 17 July from RMB 3,110/t ($459/t) a week earlier. Moreover, SHFE HRC futures for the October 2026 contract also rose by RMB 25/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 3,314/t ($489/t) from RMB 3,289/t ($485/t).
Domestic HRC prices increased overall during the week, supported by improved market sentiment and stronger futures prices following positive macroeconomic developments. Lower production and declining inventories provided additional support by easing supply pressure. However, weak seasonal demand and limited downstream buying restricted further gains, keeping the overall increase moderate.
Additionally, Ansteel, the Shenzhen-listed arm of China’s second-largest steelmaker Ansteel Iron & Steel Group, raised its list prices for carbon steel HRC by RMB 50/t ($7/t) for domestic sales in August, according to the company’s announcement on 13 July.
In contrast, Chinese HRC export offers remained stable w-o-w at around $500/t FOB Rizhao. Prolonged weakness in overseas demand continued to limit the scope for further price increases.
Outlook
Amid diverging expectations for the global economic recovery, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a K-shaped recovery in the domestic economy, expectations of stronger counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical policy support have increased.
Meanwhile, supply growth is weakening, market transactions are slowing and resilient cost support is strengthening. Against this backdrop, the domestic steel market is expected to maintain a volatile and divergent trend next week.
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