India: Cumin prices ease on weak demand despite lower arrivals, stocks

• Arrivals fall but supply remains adequate amid need-based procurement
• Buyers wait for overseas demand to improve before building fresh inventories

India’s cumin market remained under pressure during the week ending 10 July, as subdued domestic and export demand continued to weigh on prices despite a decline in physical arrivals and exchange-monitored stocks. Market sentiment also remained cautious amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the Middle East ceasefire, which dampened risk appetite across commodity markets and added to the bearish tone.

Spot prices at NCDEX-approved centres declined INR 152/t w-o-w to INR 20,351/t from INR 20,503/t. The 20 July futures contract fell INR 130/t to INR 20,300/t, while the 20 August and 18 September contracts eased by INR 105/t and INR 55/t to INR 20,575/t and INR 20,910/t, respectively.

Weak buying keeps market under pressure

Domestic buyers continued to procure only for immediate requirements amid adequate availability, while export enquiries remained below expectations. Traders said buying interest was limited throughout the week as participants awaited improved overseas demand before building fresh positions. The cautious sentiment across broader commodity markets further restrained trading activity.

Supply tightens gradually

Daily arrivals at NCDEX delivery centres declined to 8,191 t on 10 July, compared with 8,460 t a week earlier. Exchange-monitored stocks also eased to 6,387 t from 6,540 t, indicating a gradual drawdown in available inventories. However, the tightening supply failed to provide price support as weak consumption continued to outweigh the decline in arrivals.

Positions shift to near-month contracts

Open interest in the 20 July futures contract fell sharply to 4,863 lots from 7,755 lots, reflecting position squaring ahead of contract expiry. Meanwhile, open interest in the 20 August contract increased to 6,684 lots from 3,561 lots, while the 18 September contract rose to 138 lots from 30 lots, indicating that market participants shifted their positions to near-month contracts.

Outlook

Cumin prices are expected to remain largely stable with a weak bias in the coming week. Market direction will depend on the pace of export enquiries, domestic buying activity, and arrivals. While declining stocks and arrivals may offer underlying support, sustained demand from key export destinations will be necessary for any meaningful price recovery.