- Indonesian RKAB approvals remain market’s key focus
- Weak China stainless demand weighs on prices
London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices traded in a narrow range during the week ended 10 July 2026. LME three-month nickel futures rose 1.6% w-o-w to $16,600/t from $16,330/t a week earlier. However, market sentiment remained cautious amid expectations of higher Indonesian nickel ore supply and subdued stainless steel demand. LME inventories remained largely stable at 274,584 t, compared with 274,670 t in the previous week.
Macro factors
Additional ore supply expectations weigh on sentiment
The possibility of supplementary RKAB approvals continued to pressure market sentiment, with expectations that higher nickel ore production could ease raw material tightness in H2CY’26. However, uncertainty over the timing and scale of approvals prevented aggressive selling, keeping prices largely range-bound.
Indonesia tightens ferro nickel export controls
Indonesia has introduced stricter export regulations for ferro nickel as part of its broader strategy to strengthen oversight of the country’s nickel value chain. The revised regulation covers ferro nickel containing 8% or more nickel, sponge and granular ferro nickel with 4% or more nickel, and low-grade ferro nickel containing 2-4% nickel with at least 75% iron. Exporters will now be required to obtain a Laporan Surveyor (surveyor’s report) along with the necessary export permits to verify compliance with Indonesian trade regulations.
Fed outlook and stronger dollar cap upside
On the macro front, cautious expectations surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and a relatively firm US dollar continued to limit gains across the base metals complex. Investors remained focused on upcoming economic data and policy signals, while the stronger dollar reduced the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities.
Weak stainless steel demand limits recovery
Demand-side fundamentals remained subdued as seasonal weakness in China’s stainless steel sector and cautious procurement by mills continued to weigh on nickel consumption. Meanwhile, comfortable LME inventories and adequate battery raw material availability limited any strong bullish momentum.
Outlook
LME nickel prices are expected to remain range-bound in the near term, with Indonesia’s supplementary RKAB approvals, US monetary policy, and China’s stainless steel demand likely to remain the key market drivers. Unless supply disruptions emerge or downstream demand improves, prices are expected to fluctuate within the $16,500-17,000/t range, while larger-than-expected RKAB approvals could exert additional downward pressure.
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