- Scrap restrictions tighten raw material availability
- Monsoon demand tempers near-term price gains
Domestic aluminium prices in India increased w-o-w as of 10 July 2026, supported by stronger trends on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME).
According to BigMint’s assessments, P1020 aluminium ingot prices in Delhi NCR rose by INR 6,500/t (2%) w-o-w to INR 344,500/t on 10 July from INR 338,000/t on 3 July. Similarly, ex-Mumbai P1020 aluminium ingot prices increased by INR 7,000/t (2%) to INR 346,000/t on 10 July from INR 339,000/t on 3 July.
How did Indian and global exchanges perform?
Domestic aluminium futures on the MCX increased by INR 10,870/t, or 3%, w-o-w to INR 337,510/t on the latest assessment from INR 326,640/t in the previous week.
Similarly, three-month aluminium prices on the LME rose by $113/t, or 4%, to $3,201/t from $3,088/t. Meanwhile, LME aluminium stocks declined by 11,050 t, or 4%, to 289,225 t from 300,275 t during the same period.
Market updates
India’s P1020 aluminium market have strengthened, supported by a sharp decline in LME aluminium inventories to multi-year lows and renewed geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which have heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions. In response to the firmer market, primary producers have begun increasing prices in a phased manner instead of implementing steep hikes, reflecting continued uncertainty in LME price movements.
Domestic P1020 aluminium prices in Delhi are currently assessed at INR 344,000-347,000/t, with the domestic premium hovering around LME cash + $330/t.
Demand remains moderate, with monsoon-related seasonal slowdown weighing on consumption. However, recent export restrictions on aluminium scrap from Dubai and the European Union are expected to tighten scrap availability, potentially improving demand for primary aluminium in the near term.
Market participants expect LME aluminium prices to recover towards the $3,300-3,400/t range. Even if geopolitical tensions ease and material flows normalise, the global aluminium market is projected to remain in deficit through the year, which is likely to provide continued support to prices.
NALCO increased its primary aluminium ingot (P1020, 99.7%) prices on 8 July, raising the benchmark to INR 349,000/t ($3,873/t) from INR 344,000/t ($3,817/t) on 1 July, marking an increase of INR 5,000/t ($56/t), or 1.5%.
Meanwhile, BALCO recorded a 1% w-o-w increase, with average prices rising to INR 362,500/t from INR 360,375/t. Similarly, Hindalco prices increased by 1% w-o-w to INR 363,000/t from INR 359,938/t during the same period.
Outlook
Domestic aluminium prices are expected to remain firm in the near term, supported by strengthening MCX and LME trends, low LME inventories, and a projected global aluminium deficit. While monsoon-related demand may limit immediate upside, tighter scrap availability following export restrictions from Dubai and the EU, coupled with continued producer price hikes, is likely to provide further support to the domestic market.
Leave a Reply