- Seasonal demand weakness weighs on HRC prices
- Deepening losses may prompt output cuts at mills
Mysteel Global: China’s hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices are expected to continue trending lower in the first half of this month, before regaining some ground later to end July generally below the June average, Mysteel’s monthly report on the commodity suggests.
After a strong start in June, domestic hot coil prices underwent a steady decline last month, as muted demand from manufacturers and other end-users at home, and poor sales of coils abroad, dragged HRC prices lower. At end-June, Mysteel assessed the national spot price of Q235B 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,340/t ($491/t) including the 13% VAT, lower by Yuan 85/t or 2.5% from end-May.
The subdued demand, together with stable hot coil supplies, caused HRC stocks held by both mills and traders to swell again by the end of June.
On June 25, HRC stocks held by the 37 mills Mysteel regularly surveys stood at 801,500 t, higher by 7.6% on week and 9.9% on month. In tandem, inventories in the 194 commercial warehouses nationwide that Mysteel monitors had mounted by 0.6% on week to 4.59 mnt as of the same day. Significantly, this was higher by a sharp 30.6% on year.
Entering July, as the summer consumption lull continues, weak demand for the coils, together with unfavorable rainy weather, are expected to continue pressuring HRC prices in the near term, the report noted.
For example, recent torrential rains and flooding brought by typhoon Maysak swept across South China’s Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region during July’s first week, causing severe disruptions to local logistics. Hot coil deliveries from two major integrated mills in Fangchenggang city in southern part of Guangxi had to be halted for several days as flooding in many parts of the city caused water and land transport to be suspended, Mysteel’s survey showed.
Furthermore, over July 11 or 12, super typhoon Bavi is expected to make landfall in East China’s coastal area, bringing further torrential rains and strong gales to the region, further impacting steel production and logistics, Mysteel Global notes.
Meanwhile, China’s HRC exports are certain to decline on-year this month, given the tepid demand in major markets such as Vietnam, and the slow recovery in the Middle East market. On the latest China Customs data, over January-May the country shipped 6.13 million t of HRC to all destinations worldwide, slumping by a hefty 35% from the first five months of last year.
Given all the downside factors, hot coil prices are likely to trend lower on average this month compared with June, the report warns.
However, on a positive note the report points out that with production costs from elevated raw material prices remaining high, the integrated mills facing deepening losses on finished steel sales are scheduling more maintenance stoppages to reduce their losses and alleviate their inventory pressure.
Though the scale of the production cuts remains unknown, some market participants caution that the reductions may not be aggressive enough to correct the current supply-demand imbalance. During June 25-July 1, HRC production among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel edged up by a minimal 0.59% or 17,600 tonnes on week to 3.02 mnt, the latest survey results showed.
Meanwhile, rising input prices are lurking as a factor. On July 7, the Mysteel Coking Coal Index, which tracks coking coal prices nationwide in China, reached 1,701.2/t including the 13% VAT, higher by Yuan 116.7/t or 7.4% on month, though this was down by 0.6% on week. The same day, the Mysteel Coke Index CWQ for wet-quenched quasi-first-grade met coke stood at Yuan 1,837.9/t including VAT, higher by 12.7% or Yuan 206.9/t on month. This was also Yuan 66.3/t or 3.7% higher on week.
In contrast, on the same day Mysteel assessed the national spot price of Q235 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,320/t including VAT, down by Yuan 87/t or 2.6% on month. Also on July 7, the most-traded HRC contract for October delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at Yuan 3,283/t, lower by Yuan 98/t or 2.9% from the settlement price on June 8, the exchange’s data showed.
With production costs remaining high, mills are likely to make efforts to prevent prices of finished steel from sliding any further in July, the report observed. Though the makers may resort to curbing their HRC production later this month, prices are nonetheless expected to be rangebound at a low level, it said.
Note: This article is published in accordance with an article sharing agreement between Mysteel Global and BigMint.
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