Global aluminium prices enter make-or-break zone ahead of monthly expiry

• Prices slip below key technical support levels
• Monthly expiry could determine near-term direction

Metal Intelligence Centre: Aluminium prices have seen a sharp correction over the past month, falling 20% from their 2026 peak and surrendering all post-war gains.In the process, the metal fell below three key resistance levels:

• The 200-day moving average, typically known as the bull–bear dividing line;
• An uptrend that had remained intact for the past year;
• A one-month downward trendline, reflecting recent selling pressure.

This decline has pushed aluminium into a technically critical zone.

The coming week, which also marks the expiry of the monthly futures contract, will be crucial for aluminium. Bulls need to step in and push prices above $3,150 to regain control and stabilise sentiment.

Otherwise, the metal could extend its downtrend toward $2,700–2,800 over the rest of the quarter.

Goldman Sachs has revised down its 2026 forecast for aluminium to $2,950, as Gulf smelters are ramping up faster than expected. The bank also expects new Asian supplies to push the metal even lower, to $2,700 in 2027.

Note: This article has been published as part of a content partnership between MIC and BigMint.