- Persistent selling pressure weighs on prices
- Chinese futures soften; MCX prices increase
Lead prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) remained under pressure during the week ended 3 July 2026, extending losses for another consecutive week as persistent bearish sentiment across the base metals complex continued to outweigh support from tightening exchange inventories. Although LME warehouse stocks declined further, prices struggled to sustain gains and remained below the psychological $1,900/t mark throughout the reporting period.
On a w-o-w basis, LME cash lead prices declined by $29/t, or 1.5%, to $1,851/t on 3 July from $1,880/t recorded on 26 June. Continued selling pressure and cautious industrial demand weighed on market sentiment, while the ongoing drawdown in exchange inventories helped prevent steeper losses.
Price trends
LME cash lead prices began the week at $1,871.5/t on 29 June before easing to $1,845/t on 30 June. Prices slipped marginally to $1,840/t on 1 July and touched a weekly low of $1,828.5/t on 2 July before recovering modestly to close at $1,851/t on 3 July.
The three-month contract followed a similar trend. Prices opened the week at $1,909/t on 29 June, softened to $1,885/t on 30 June and $1,878/t on 1 July, before declining further to $1,870/t on 2 July. The contract recovered slightly to settle at $1,891/t on 3 July.
Despite the late-week rebound, lead prices remained comfortably below the key $1,900/t threshold, reflecting continued weakness in near-term market sentiment and limited buying interest.
Inventory analysis
LME lead inventories continued their downward trajectory during the reporting week, providing some underlying support to market fundamentals.
Exchange stocks declined from 297,450 t on 26 June to 297,000 t on 29 June before climbing to 297,375 t on 30 June and then sliding to 295,900 t on 1 July. Inventories continued to fall to 294,450 t on 2 July and reached 293,150 t by 3 July.
Overall, LME lead stocks declined by 4,300 t w-o-w, extending the inventory drawdown observed in recent weeks. The sustained reduction points to continued warehouse outflows and relatively balanced physical availability. However, tighter inventories were insufficient to offset broader bearish sentiment in the market.
SHFE lead trends
Lead prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) weakened during the week, indicating softer sentiment in the Chinese domestic market.
SHFE lead edged up marginally from RMB 2,269/t on 29 June to RMB 2,272/t on 30 June before reversing course. Prices eased to RMB 2,265/t on 1 July and declined further to RMB 2,243/t on 2 July, closing the week at RMB 2,216/t on 3 July.
The gradual decline suggests cautious downstream demand and subdued buying activity in China, with market participants remaining watchful of broader macroeconomic developments and global base metals trends.
MCX lead trends (29 June-3 July)
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), lead futures displayed greater resilience compared with overseas markets, trading within a relatively narrow range before ending the week higher.
The July futures contract settled at INR 195,800/t on 29 June before rising to INR 197,000/t on 30 June. Prices remained largely stable at INR 196,950/t on 1 July and improved to INR 197,200/t on 2 July before closing the week at INR 199,150/t on 3 July.
Open interest increased from 467 lots on 29 June to a weekly high of 558 lots on 2 July before easing marginally to 542 lots on Friday. The simultaneous increase in prices and open interest through most of the week indicates fresh long build-up, while the slight decline in open interest on the final trading day suggests some profit booking following the price recovery.
Trading volumes remained moderate as domestic consumers largely continued need-based procurement amid adequate availability of refined lead material.
Market updates
Market sentiment remained cautious throughout the week as LME lead prices continued to trade below the key $1,900/t level despite another week of declining exchange inventories. The continued inventory drawdown offered some support to underlying fundamentals, but weak global risk appetite and subdued industrial demand limited buying interest.
In China, softer SHFE prices reflected cautious downstream participation and weaker domestic sentiment, mirroring the broader weakness across international lead markets. Meanwhile, India’s physical market remained relatively stable, with consumers continuing need-based purchases amid adequate material availability. The resilience in MCX lead futures suggested relatively firmer domestic sentiment despite weakness in overseas benchmarks.
Outlook
BigMint expects LME lead prices to remain under pressure in the near term as weak spot market sentiment and cautious industrial demand continue to outweigh support from declining exchange inventories.
Immediate support is likely around the $1,820-1,840/t range, while resistance is expected near $1,890-1,910/t. Inventory movements, macroeconomic developments and downstream demand trends in both China and other key consuming regions will remain the primary indicators for price direction, while Indian buyers are expected to continue adopting a cautious, need-based procurement strategy.
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