- LME nickel declines w-o-w to $16,740/t
- Final RKAB approvals expected before 31 July
London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel futures declined 6% w-o-w during the week ended 26 June 2026, settling at $16,740/t from $17,780/t a week earlier. LME warehouse inventories also edged lower to 274,806 t, compared with 276,216 t in the previous week.
Indonesia’s quota revision pressures sentiment
Nickel prices came under pressure after reports indicated that Indonesia is considering raising its 2026 nickel mining quotas (RKABs) to around 360 million tonnes (mnt), up from nearly 260 mnt approved in the first half of the year. The proposed increase, if approved by Energy Minister, is expected to improve ore availability for domestic smelters and could lead to higher global nickel supply.
The reports emerged shortly after Russian producer Nornickel projected a marginal 20,000 t global nickel surplus in 2026, underscoring Indonesia’s critical role in determining the global supply-demand balance. The possibility of additional Indonesian supply further weakened market sentiment, triggering selling pressure across the nickel complex.
Although annual RKAB revisions before 31 July are part of Indonesia’s routine mining approval process, the country’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has not officially confirmed the proposed quota increase. Market participants noted that any substantial expansion in mining permits could reverse the ore tightness witnessed earlier this year, when lower production quotas supported LME nickel prices.
Outlook
The nickel market is expected to remain sensitive to developments surrounding Indonesia’s mining policy. While lower LME inventories continue to offer limited support, expectations of higher Indonesian ore supply and a potential increase in global nickel availability are likely to keep prices under pressure until the government announces its final RKAB approvals.
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