- Cambodia rice output seen at 14.4 MMT in MY 2026/27.
- Rice exports forecast at 4.1 MMT.
Higher prices, improved profitability and better input availability expected to support recovery
Cambodia’s rice production is forecast to rebound in MY 2026/27 after declining in MY 2025/26. According to USDA FAS Phnom Penh, rough rice production is projected at 14.43 million metric tonnes (MMT) in MY 2026/27, up from an estimated 13.28 MMT in MY 2025/26. Milled rice production is forecast to increase to 8.8 MMT from 8.1 MMT during the same period. The recovery is expected to be driven by an expansion in harvested area to 3.85 million hectares and an improvement in yields to 3.74 MT/HA as farmers restore normal fertilizer application and benefit from improved profitability.
Production Rebounds After Difficult MY 2025/26
Rice production in MY 2025/26 is estimated at 13.28 MMT, down around 5% from 13.92 MMT in MY 2024/25. Harvested area declined to 3.78 million hectares from 3.86 million hectares, while yields fell to 3.51 MT/HA from 3.61 MT/HA. According to the report, fertilizer and fuel prices increased by 20-30% during MY 2025/26, raising cultivation costs and limiting input usage. Some farmers reduced fertilizer application, while others opted out of rice production altogether. The Cambodia-Thailand border conflict also disrupted imports of Thai fertilizers and seed, forcing farmers to rely on alternative suppliers. Rising transportation costs further increased farm-to-mill and mill-to-port logistics expenses.
Improved Growing Conditions Support Outlook
The report notes that water levels in the Mekong River are higher than last year at the start of the 2026 wet season. Higher river and canal water availability is expected to support better soil moisture, easier field preparation and more reliable irrigation for early wet-season rice cultivation. For MY 2026/27, wet-season rice production is forecast at 10.38 MMT, while dry-season production is projected at 4.05 MMT. Total harvested area is expected to increase to 3.85 million hectares, with yields improving to 3.74 MT/HA.
Rice Exports Forecast at 4.1 MMT
Cambodia’s rice exports are forecast at 4.1 MMT in MY 2026/27, slightly higher than the estimated 4.0 MMT in MY 2025/26. The export outlook reflects sustained demand from traditional markets and continued expansion into the Philippines. Major destinations are expected to include paddy exports to Vietnam and milled rice exports to China, the European Union and the Philippines. According to Cambodia Rice Federation (CRF) data, milled rice exports during January-April 2026 reached nearly 470,000 MT, up approximately 70% year-on-year. The CRF expects official milled rice exports to exceed 1 million MT in calendar year 2026. However, paddy exports to Vietnam declined by 13% during the first four months of MY 2025/26 due to weaker Vietnamese demand.
Philippines Emerging as a Key Market
Exports to the Philippines increased to 57,000 MT during the first four months of 2026, compared with 3,500 MT during the whole of MY 2024/25. The Cambodia Rice Federation expects shipments to the Philippines to reach 200,000 MT by the end of 2026, supported by expanded import quotas and Cambodia’s competitive pricing. While exports to Vietnam have gradually declined, shipments to the Philippines, China and the European Union have increased.
European Market Remains Important
France remains Cambodia’s largest rice market in Europe, importing approximately 37,000 MT. The Netherlands follows with around 15,000 MT, while the United Kingdom imports approximately 13,000 MT. The report notes that commodity-grade long-grain white rice continues to see strong demand from China and the Philippines, while premium fragrant rice maintains demand in European markets. Lower-grade broken rice is largely exported to Vietnam for processing and feed use.
Domestic Consumption Remains Stable
Rice consumption in MY 2026/27 is forecast at 4.2 MMT, unchanged from the revised estimate for MY 2025/26. The MY 2025/26 consumption estimate was revised down from 4.4 MMT to 4.2 MMT due to dietary diversification and increasing consumption of wheat-based convenience foods. According to Trade Data Monitor, Cambodia’s wheat imports during January-April 2026 increased 41% year-on-year to 47,463 MT.
Stocks Expected to Recover
Ending rice stocks are forecast at approximately 1.09 MMT in MY 2026/27, up from an estimated 571,000 MT in MY 2025/26. The increase reflects the anticipated recovery in production following the tighter supply situation experienced during MY 2025/26.
Policy Support
The Cambodian government continues to prioritize addressing agricultural input shortages. On 28 May 2026, Chinese officials pledged support for Cambodia’s supply of oil, gas and fertilizers. The government has directed the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries to negotiate fertilizer imports and accelerate domestic production in an effort to reduce dependence on imported agricultural inputs.
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