Atlantic coal market steady amid Turkiye demand and gas price shifts

• Weak Turkish imports pressure Atlantic coal
• Higher gas prices support coal economics

The Atlantic thermal coal market has remained relatively subdued in recent sessions, with limited price movement and muted trading activity despite continued uncertainty in global energy markets.

European coal prices have shown little direction, while market participants continue to assess the impact of Turkish import trends, European gas prices, storage levels and changing weather conditions on summer fuel demand.

Although near-term sentiment remains cautious, several underlying factors could shape Atlantic basin coal flows and pricing in the coming months.

Turkiye remains a soft spot for Atlantic demand

Turkiye, traditionally an important buyer of Atlantic basin coal, has remained relatively weak in recent months, largely due to stronger hydropower generation and softer thermal coal imports.

Market commentary suggests Turkish buyers have remained selective, while ample hydro availability has reduced immediate coal burn requirements. Weather conditions in May have also remained relatively mild, limiting near-term electricity demand growth.

This softer Turkish demand has reduced buying support for Atlantic basin cargoes, particularly from suppliers targeting the Mediterranean market.

However, warmer temperatures expected later in May and seasonal summer demand could gradually improve coal consumption trends, although the pace of recovery remains uncertain.

European gas prices continue to support coal competitiveness

Despite relatively muted spot coal trading, elevated European gas prices continue to influence fuel economics across the power sector.

The Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas benchmark for Q3 2026 was assessed around EUR 47-48/MWh, remaining substantially higher than levels seen a year ago. At the same time, European gas storage stood at 35.7% of capacity, below roughly 42% during the same period last year.

Lower storage levels heading into the refill season may keep European gas markets sensitive to supply disruptions and weather-related demand shifts.

While renewable generation continues to expand across Europe, coal can still retain a role in balancing systems during periods of lower wind generation or elevated gas prices.

For thermal coal markets, stronger gas prices generally improve coal’s competitiveness in power generation, although environmental policies and emissions costs continue to limit coal’s structural upside in Europe.

Colombian export flows may warrant closer attention

Another factor being closely monitored is Colombia’s export availability.

Colombia remains an important Atlantic basin supplier into Europe and Turkiye, particularly for medium- to high-calorific-value thermal coal. Recent data shows Colombian exports have remained active, while demand from multiple destinations, including Asia and Turkiye, continues to influence trade flows.

At the same time, weather-related risks associated with potential drier conditions later in the year may influence domestic fuel requirements in some producing regions.

Any increase in domestic coal demand or logistical disruptions could tighten export availability, although the scale of such impacts remains uncertain at this stage.

Prices remain stable but sentiment cautious

Physical Atlantic basin coal prices have remained broadly stable.

Spot DES ARA coal was assessed around $108/t, while FOB Richards Bay 5,500 NAR coal remained near $93/t.

Financial coal contracts have shown some softness in recent sessions, reflecting cautious sentiment amid the absence of strong bullish triggers.

At the same time, participants continue to monitor Middle East geopolitical developments, LNG market movements and weather forecasts for signals on future fuel demand.

What to watch

For the Atlantic thermal coal market, several indicators are likely to remain important over the coming weeks:

• Turkish thermal coal imports: Any seasonal recovery could support Mediterranean demand
• European gas storage and TTF prices: Lower storage or higher gas prices may improve coal economics
• Colombian export availability: Changes in domestic demand or logistics may affect Atlantic supply
• European weather patterns: Wind, temperatures and solar output will shape thermal generation requirements.

For now, Atlantic coal markets appear balanced, with weaker near-term buying offset by supportive fuel economics and potential supply-side uncertainties later in the summer.