- Regulatory hurdles and safeguard revisions keep EU buyers cautious
- Geopolitical risks, shipping disruptions constrain Middle East trade
Indian HRC export activity remained subdued during 28 April-5 May 2026, with trade flows to Europe and the Middle East constrained by regulatory uncertainty, logistical disruptions, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
While offers to the EU saw a marginal w-o-w uptick, booking activity remained absent as buyers continued to adopt a cautious, wait-and-watch approach. Concerns over upcoming safeguard revisions in the EU, coupled with CBAM-related compliance costs and weak demand fundamentals, weighed on sentiment.
In the Middle East, geopolitical tensions and shipping constraints continued to restrict trade flows, keeping overall export activity muted.
HRC exports to Europe: Indian HRC export offers to the EU rose by $5/t w-o-w to around $710/t CFR Antwerp, up from $705/t in the previous week. However, no bookings were reportedly heard during the assessment window, reflecting continued buyer caution.
Overall import activity in the region remained limited, with buyers largely refraining from purchases ahead of revised safeguard measures scheduled to take effect from 1 July 2026. Under the revised framework, the annual tariff-rate quota (TRQ) is estimated at around 18.35 million tonnes (mnt), with volumes exceeding this threshold attracting a higher tariff of 50%, compared to 25% earlier. This sharp escalation has heightened concerns over duty exposure, thereby dampening import appetite among European buyers.
In addition, regulatory requirements such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and the upcoming “melt and pour” norms are adding further layers of compliance complexity and cost pressure, weighing on sourcing decisions.
Logistical disruptions are also contributing to market caution, as ongoing security risks in the Red Sea-Suez Canal route have forced vessels to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times by 15-20 days while increasing freight and war-risk insurance costs.
Meanwhile, weak domestic demand and elevated inventory levels across the EU continue to weigh on buying interest, keeping overall market sentiment subdued.
HRC offers to the Middle East: Indian HRC export offers to the Middle East remained absent w-o-w, as persistent geopolitical tensions in the region and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on trade flows and kept market activity muted.
A Middle East-based source said, “Only a limited number of Chinese mills are currently offering material at around $510/t FOB, with freight costs estimated at approximately $70/t. However, buying interest remains subdued, as market participants continue to exercise caution amid ongoing tensions. Under prevailing conditions, any forward transactions are largely speculative, high-risk, and uncertain, with market sentiment remaining broadly unchanged. Local producers and stockists, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, had been playing a more prominent role in meeting regional demand, temporarily bridging supply gaps. Early signs of supply pressure are beginning to emerge, gradually tightening inventory levels in the market.”
Overall, the Middle East imported HRC market remains subdued, with geopolitical risks, logistical constraints, and limited trade visibility continuing to shape a cautious and risk-averse environment.
Outlook
Indian HRC export activity is expected to remain under pressure in the coming week amid policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and logistical bottlenecks across key markets. In Europe, buying interest is likely to stay weak ahead of the implementation of revised safeguard measures, while in the Middle East, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz are expected to keep trade flows muted. Overall, export activity is expected to remain subdued unless regulatory clarity improves, geopolitical risks ease, and shipping conditions normalise.
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