Turkish scrap prices rise on freight, weak rebar demand caps gains

• Scrap prices rise on high freight, tight supply
• Weak rebar demand pressures mill margins

Turkish deep-sea scrap prices extended their upward trend during the 30 April, supported primarily by persistently high freight costs and limited availability. HMS 80:20 tradable level indications clustering in the $410-415/t range.

A Baltic-origin cargo was heard booked at around $410/t CFR by a Marmara mill, though this remained unconfirmed. Market sentiment stayed firm, with US-origin offers reported as high as $420/t CFR, while bids were heard at $413-415/t CFR. A European supplier was also heard offering at around $415/t CFR, reflecting continued seller strength.

Price assessments

• US-origin bulk HMS 80:20: $412/t CFR Turkiye, up by $6/t w-o-w
• US East Coast HMS 80:20: $380/t FOB, up $3/t w-o-w

The scrap-to-rebar spread narrowed further to around $185-186/t, slipping below the commonly referenced $200/t breakeven threshold. At the same time, Turkish rebar export prices declined slightly to $597-598/t FOB, adding pressure on already tight mill margins.

Market comments

The recent price strength has been largely driven by elevated freight rates and constrained scrap availability, which have supported seller expectations. However, buying interest remains cautious, with mills balancing raw material needs against weak finished steel demand.

A market participant stated that “The current trend appears counterintuitive, as rising input costs are not being supported by downstream demand. This disconnect has made mills more selective in bookings, despite the need to secure cargoes.”

While some mills continue to book cargoes for near-term requirements, overall activity remains measured, with participants closely monitoring price direction and demand recovery.

Domestic market

Turkey’s domestic steel market remained subdued, with weak rebar demand in both local and export segments. Rising scrap costs could not be passed on, keeping mills cautious as they focused on order generation and margin management amid limited finished steel demand.

Outlook

Turkish scrap prices are expected to stay supported in the upcoming dy, driven by firm freight rates and limited availability. However, weak rebar demand and tight mill margins are likely to limit aggressive buying, keeping the market range-bound with cautious sentiment.