Thailand: Thermal coal imports jump 20% in Q1CY’26

• Indonesian supplies up 11%, Australian imports surge 49%
• Power, industrial sector demand strong despite high prices

Thailand imported 5.5 million tonnes (mnt) of thermal coal in the first quarter of 2026, representing a 20% y-o-y increase, according to customs data. March imports stood at 1.8 mnt, stable m-o-m but significantly above the 1.2 mnt recorded in March 2025 and above the forecast of 1.5 mnt.

Indonesian supplies totalled 4 mnt in Q1CY’26, up 410,000 tonnes (t) or 11% y-o-y. Australian imports surged to 1.3 mnt in Q1CY’26, up 49% from 870,000 t in the same period last year.

The full-year import forecast has been revised upward, with H1CY’26 imports now expected to reach 10.7 mnt, reflecting an increase of 1.4 mnt y-o-y. Overall, the H1CY’26 forecast indicates a 15% y-o-y growth.

Resilient demand drives imports

Thailand’s stronger-than-expected import performance reflects resilient domestic power and industrial demand. The country has diversified its supply sources, with Australian shipments rising sharply alongside steady Indonesian volumes.

March imports were well above both year-ago levels and forecast estimates, indicating that buyers are securing cargoes despite elevated international prices.

Southeast Asian demand provides support

Thailand’s import strength is a positive signal for seaborne thermal coal markets, demonstrating that Southeast Asian demand remains resilient despite global price volatility. Indonesian and Australian suppliers are the primary beneficiaries of this trend.

The upward revision to the H1CY’26 forecast suggests continued import strength through the second quarter, providing a floor for regional prices.