- Futures decline sharper than spot between 17-24 April
- Weak exports and masala demand now key downside drivers
In the week from 17 to 24 April 2026, cumin prices showed a clear divergence between spot and futures. Spot prices at Unjha declined marginally from INR 21,566 to INR 21,284 per quintal, a fall of INR 282 (~1.3%), indicating limited pressure in the physical market.
In contrast, futures corrected sharply. The May contract fell from INR 21,660 to INR 20,800, down INR 860 (~4%), while the June contract declined from INR 22,090 to INR 21,060, a drop of INR 1,030 (~4.7%). The sharper fall in futures clearly indicates that the weakness is being driven by forward expectations rather than immediate physical distress.
Rollover data confirms fresh bearish bets
Open interest trends between 17 and 24 April further reinforce the bearish structure. The May contract OI declined from 9,723 to 9,339 lots, indicating long liquidation ahead of expiry. Meanwhile, June contract OI surged from 72 to 2,127 lots, signalling aggressive fresh short build-up in the next active contract.
This rollover pattern confirms that market participants are actively positioning for further downside.
Key structural change in market support
During earlier weeks, cumin masala companies and exporters were actively supporting the market at lower levels. However, as of late April, export demand has weakened and domestic offtake has slowed. Masala companies have shifted to hand-to-mouth buying, reducing their ability to absorb selling pressure. This transition explains why futures are falling faster, as the market anticipates continued demand weakness.
Adequate near-term supply, tighter forward pipeline
NCDEX warehouse data shows valid stocks at 6,322 MT as of expiry, with only limited quantities in far-month contracts such as November. This indicates that while immediate supply is comfortable, forward availability remains tight, preventing a sharp collapse.
Current market confirmation (27 April)
The bearish trend extended into 27 April, with May futures falling INR 760 (-3.64%) and June falling INR 750 (-3.56%), both closing near day lows. Spot was quoted around INR 20,861, still showing relatively slower decline but beginning to weaken.
Outlook
In the near term, the cumin market is likely to remain under pressure, driven by weak export demand, reduced buying from masala companies, and continued short build-up in futures.
However, given that stocks are not excessive and forward availability is tight, the decline is expected to remain controlled. Any revival in export demand or slowdown in arrivals could trigger short covering. Until then, the market remains in a sell-on-rise phase with a clear bearish bias driven by demand-side weakness and strong derivative positioning.
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