- Alternative Asian suppliers gain traction
- Chinese, Taiwanese shares decline sharply
Japan Metal Daily: Japan’s imports of nickel-based stainless steel cold-rolled (CR) flats are estimated to decline marginally by 2-3% y-o-y to just over 170,000 t in FY’26 (April 2025-March 2026), compared with 177,000 t in the previous year. The decline comes amid ongoing anti-dumping (AD) investigations targeting material from China and Taiwan, prompting a shift in sourcing patterns.
China, Taiwan lose dominance
Imports from China are expected to fall by around 10% y-o-y, while Taiwan may see a sharper decline of nearly 20%. The combined share of China, Taiwan, and South Korea accounted for over 95% across thickness segments in line with historical trends. However, this concentration has weakened significantly in recent months.
Recent trade data indicate a sharp drop in the share of these three countries, with base material share declining to 66%, thick plates to 61%, and thin materials to 76%. China’s contribution has reduced considerably across all segments.
Emerging suppliers gain ground
As traditional suppliers lose share, imports from Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and India have increased notably. South Korea has expanded its shipments by around 20% y-o-y.
Indonesia and Vietnam have emerged as key suppliers for base materials, while Indonesia, India, and Malaysia are gaining traction in thicker gauges. For thin materials, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are increasingly prominent.
Trade policy reshapes flows
The shift in sourcing is largely attributed to Japan’s tightening trade measures. The AD probe has already altered trade flows, and authorities are now evaluating the application of anti-circumvention rules introduced in April 2026. Market participants indicated that evidence of unfair trade practices could trigger an investigation into the diversion of exports.
Outlook
Japan’s stainless steel CR import landscape is expected to remain dynamic, with further diversification likely as trade restrictions intensify. While alternative Asian suppliers will continue to gain share, stricter enforcement of AD and anti-circumvention measures may keep overall import volumes under pressure.
This article is published as part of a content-exchange agreement between Japan Metal Daily and BigMint.
Leave a Reply