- Peak arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan continue to pressure spot and futures markets
- Weak export demand and rising open interest signal bearish near-term outlook
India’s jeera market remains under pressure as peak arrivals across key mandis outweigh the impact of lower crop estimates this season. Unjha, the benchmark cumin trading hub, reported arrivals of 43,000-45,000 bags, while total inflows in Gujarat stood at 80,000-85,000 bags per day. Rajasthan mandis also saw strong arrivals of 50,000-55,000 bags, with Medta contributing 18,000-20,000 bags.
The supply surge has led to a decline of around INR 4-5 per kg in spot prices during the week. Gujarat markets are trading at INR 185-220 per kg, while Rajasthan prices are quoted at INR 190-225 per kg, depending on quality. Traders note that delayed arrivals in Rajasthan have concentrated supply in April, intensifying short-term pressure.
Export demand remains key drag
The export segment continues to weigh on the market. During April-January 2025-26, jeera exports declined by 15% y-o-y to 166,878 t. Export revenues fell more sharply by 28% to INR 3,885.33 crore due to lower global prices and subdued demand from key destinations.
Lower crop may support prices later
Fundamentally, the crop outlook remains tighter. Jeera acreage declined to 11.18 lakh hectares from 11.71 lakh hectares last year, while adverse weather impacted yields. Production is estimated at 88-90 lakh bags, lower than 97-98 lakh bags last season.
Outlook remains weak
In the near term, the cumin market is expected to remain under pressure as arrivals stay elevated and export demand remains weak. However, as arrivals begin to taper and export buying from China and Bangladesh picks up in the coming weeks, prices may find support. Traders will closely track these triggers for any shift in market direction.
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