- Sharp rise in arrivals drags prices despite earlier buying support
- Weak futures and rising supply shift market to sell-on-rise mode
Turmeric prices in India have turned lower after a brief recovery, as a sharp increase in arrivals and weakening futures sentiment weighed on the market. While prices had risen on 8 April due to improved buying interest and stronger NCDEX cues, the trend has since reversed, with the market now trading under pressure across both spot and derivatives segments.
Futures decline leads market direction
NCDEX turmeric futures have corrected sharply, currently trading in the range of INR 14,300-14,500 per quintal, down by more than 2% in recent sessions. This marks a significant drop from the earlier INR 16,600-16,800 levels, indicating long liquidation and fresh selling pressure in the market.
The decline in futures has shifted overall sentiment, with technical indicators now pointing towards a “sell” bias, reflecting active participation on the short side. Market participants noted that futures are no longer supporting spot prices and are instead leading the downside trend.
Arrival pressure outweighs demand support
A key factor behind the correction is the sharp increase in arrivals across major mandis. Supplies have risen significantly following the reopening of key Maharashtra markets and steady inflows from producing regions. Earlier estimates of around 70,000 bags of arrivals are now fully impacting the market, creating excess near-term supply.
Although domestic demand from stockists and processors remains stable, it has not been strong enough to absorb the higher arrivals at elevated price levels. As a result, buyers are now refraining from aggressive purchases and are instead waiting for lower price levels.
Spot prices weaken; structure breaks
Spot market prices, which had earlier strengthened by INR 200-500 per quintal, are now softening in line with futures. Benchmark prices around INR 16,200+ seen earlier are no longer sustainable, with the market slipping into a lower trading band.
The breakdown below key support levels indicates a shift in market structure. Immediate support is now seen near INR 14,200, followed by INR 14,000, while resistance is placed at INR 14,800-15,000. The inability to hold higher levels suggests that the market has transitioned from a recovery phase to a corrective trend.
Export demand remains weak
Export demand continues to be a limiting factor. Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have reduced enquiry levels, while recent data showed turmeric exports at around 9,547 t, down nearly 19% y-o-y. This weak external demand is adding to bearish sentiment, especially in the presence of rising domestic supply.
Near-term pressure with limited upside
In the near term, turmeric prices are expected to remain under pressure as higher arrivals and weak futures dominate market direction. Traders have shifted to a sell-on-rise strategy, and any upside is likely to be capped unless there is a meaningful improvement in demand or a decline in arrivals.
The market is likely to remain volatile, with a downward bias, as participants closely track supply trends and futures movement for further cues.
Leave a Reply