India: Iron ore concentrate prices largely stable following NMDC’s price revision

• Bid-offer gap persists in the region
• Strong cues from pellet market

Iron ore concentrate prices in the Jabalpur region have entered a firm upward trajectory, driven by a combination of strengthening downstream markets and supply-side constraints. According to BigMint’s latest bi-weekly assessment dated 8 April, Fe 62% concentrate prices rose marginally by INR 50/t ($0.5/t) to INR 5,300/t ($57/t) ex-works, while higher-grade Fe 63% material was quoted in the range of INR 5,600-5,700/t ($61-62/t). The price movement reflects a broader shift in market sentiment following recent increases in pellet prices and a notable price hike by NMDC Limited.

The rally in concentrate prices is being underpinned by firm demand from the finished steel segment. Rising steel prices partly influenced by elevated production costs linked to ongoing geopolitical tensions have improved margins for steelmakers, encouraging them to secure raw materials despite higher input costs. This has created a ripple effect across the value chain, with pellet producers and concentrate suppliers adjusting their offers upward.

A critical factor amplifying this trend is the acute shortage of high-grade material in the region. Limited availability of Fe 63% concentrate has intensified competition among buyers, with approximately 20,000 tonnes of higher-grade deals reported in recent days. The imbalance between demand and supply is becoming increasingly evident while the number of active buyers has grown, the pool of sellers remains relatively thin, further tightening market dynamics.

However, despite bullish signals, actual transaction activity at the revised price levels remains muted. Buyers are proceeding cautiously, with many opting to hold back purchases in anticipation of a potential correction. As a result, deals are still being concluded at older price levels in some cases, highlighting a persistent gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness.

Market participants describe the current environment as uncertain and transitional. Sellers, encouraged by supportive fundamentals, continue to push for higher realizations, while buyers remain price-sensitive and selective in their procurement strategies. This divergence has sustained a noticeable bid-offer disparity across the region.

A Jabalpur-based seller indicated that “further upward revisions in offers are likely, aligning with recent raw material cost escalations and signaling confidence in near-term demand strength”.

On the other hand, a buyer noted that “recent purchases were finalized just before the NMDC price revision, allowing procurement at comparatively lower rates.”

Rationale

• One (1) trade was recorded in this publishing window, which is is taken into consideration, receiving a 50% weightage.
• Nine (9) offers and indicative prices were heard, in which five (5) are taken into consideration as T2 trades, receiving 50% weightage.

Factors supporting prices

• Pellet prices rise in Raipur by INR 250/t ($2.5/t): PELLEX, BigMint’s bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index for Raipur increased by INR 250/t ($2/t) INR 10,900/t ($113/t) DAP on Tuesday, compared to 3 April. The upward movement has been largely driven by firm trends in downstream segments such as sponge iron and billets, where improved realizations have encouraged producers to absorb higher raw material costs. This positive momentum has provided pellet manufacturers with the confidence to raise offers. Adding further support to the price rise, leading miners including NMDC Limited and Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited implemented sharp increases in iron ore prices for April deliveries. The hike in input costs has directly translated into higher pellet pricing, as producers pass on the burden across the value chain.
• NMDC hike iron ore prices by by INR 450-550/t ($5-6/t): India’s largest merchant iron ore mining company, NMDC, announced its list prices of iron ore CLO (calibrated lump ore) and fines on 5 April 2026, BigMint learnt from sources. The miner has fixed prices of DR CLO (10-40 mm, Fe 67%) at INR 5,900/tonne (t) ($63/t) and of iron ore fines (-10 mm, Fe 64%) at INR 4,500/t ($48/t). Prices are on FOR basis from the miner’s Bacheli complex and exclude royalty, DMF, and NMEDT. Prices of all grades were raised by INR 450-550/t.

Outlook

Iron ore concentrate prices in the Jabalpur region are likely to maintain a firm-to-upward in the near term, supported by higher pellet prices and recent price hikes by NMDC Limited, along with tight availability of high-grade material. Sellers are expected to continue pushing for higher realizations amid favorable cost dynamics and improving steel margins. However, the pace of the uptrend may remain gradual, as cautious buying behavior and limited transaction volumes could cap sharp increases. Any softening in downstream steel demand may exert pressure on prices, making the market direction dependent on how end-user demand evolves in the coming weeks.